Match Info

Premier League - Round 33

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Tovuz şəhər stadionu (Tovuz)

Referee: Hasanli V. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport, Idman TV


	Kapaz		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.9	1.55
	4.55	3.95	1.55	Watch
	4.87	4.15	1.62
	4.98	3.9	1.59	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.62
	5.02	3.9	1.55
	5.2	3.9	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.83 ↓ (5.61)	3.9 ↓ (4.18)	1.55 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kapaz
18.7%

Draw
23.2%

Neftchi Baku
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

21.8%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

21.2%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kapaz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kapaz than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Neftchi Baku could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Kapaz - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Kapaz will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Neftchi will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Bayramov E. (G) 4. Abuladze M. 66. Atakishiyev A. 14. Fofana A. 11. Haciyev R. 5. Huseynli R. 10. Ohori R. 99. Samadov A. (C) 88. Seyidov S. 21. Shafiyev S. 29. Verdasca D.	1. Balayev E. (C) 33. Breno Almeida 4. Camalov E. 28. Curci A. 5. Igor Ribeiro 17. Khachayev M. 18. Mathew I. 22. Ortiz L. 23. Rezabala J. 77. Sacko F. 10. Vargas F.
Substitutes
20. Abilov E. 12. Ba M. 6. Cafarov C. 22. Huseynov M. (G) 83. Isaqov R. 80. Ismayilov S. 23. Kalantarov F. 30. Quliyev R. 17. Samadov U. 57. Yusifov A.	95. Babayev E. (G) 15. Badalov E. 6. D'Almeida S. 11. Faraj I. 14. Kuc E. 8. Mahmudov E. 47. Mammadov M. 13. Piric K. (G) 19. Salyanskiy A. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A.
Coaches
Bagirov A.	Vernidub Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Seyidov S. 🟨,
41', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Igor Ribeiro ↓, Badalov E. ↑,
46', Sacko F. ↓, Shtogrin A. ↑,
46', Curci A. ↓, Faraj I. ↑,
46', Shafiyev S. ↓, Ismayilov S. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Vargas F. ⚽,
60', Huseynli R. 🟨,
63', Samadov A. ↓, Isaqov R. ↑,
63', Atakishiyev A. ↓, Abilov E. ↑,
65', Mathew I. 🟥,
67', Vargas F. ↓, Salyanskiy A. ↑,
74', Haciyev R. ↓, Kalantarov F. ↑,
74', Rezabala J. ↓, Mahmudov E. ↑,
80', Abuladze M. 🟨,
82', Ohori R. ↓, Quliyev R. ↑,
86', Khachayev M. 🟨,
90+4', Ismayilov S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kapaz won 1.

Kapaz has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Neftchi is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kapaz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Neftchi is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kapaz won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 21:44. (average 1.1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kapaz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.2:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15
7	Kapaz	5	2	1	2	4:7	-3	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Kapaz
Azerbaijan Premier League
15.05.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Sabah - Kapaz	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Kapaz - Sumgayit	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Shamakhi - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Kapaz - İmişli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 LWWLL
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.05.26	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	3:0 ✺
05.05.26	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
30.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
15.02.26	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:3
01.11.25	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	5:1
04.05.25	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	2:2
05.03.25	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:0
Azerbaijan Cup
28.02.25	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	1:0
05.02.25	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	0:2
Azerbaijan Premier League
15.12.24	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	2:1

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