Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Berceo		Peña Balsamaiso

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.95	6.1
	1.46	4.15	6.24
	1.44	3.9	6
	1.43	4.1	6.3
	1.44	4	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.39)	4.02 ↓ (4.2)	6.19 ↓ (6.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Berceo
62.8%

Draw
22.5%

Peña Balsamaiso
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

21.5%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

20.5%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Berceo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Peña Balsamaiso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Berceo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Berceo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peña Balsamaiso than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Berceo - Peña Balsamaiso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Berceo won 1.

Berceo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peña Balsamaiso is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Peña Balsamaiso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Berceo is the clear favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Berceo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Berceo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Berceo	5	4	0	1	14:5	9	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Berceo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
10.01.26	Berceo - Autol	5:0 ✺
03.01.26	Yagüe - Berceo	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - Berceo	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Berceo - Oyonesa	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Berceo - Anguiano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTLTT
- Peña Balsamaiso
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
11.01.26	UD Logroñés Promesas - Peña Balsamaiso	6:1 ✺
04.01.26	Peña Balsamaiso - Oyonesa	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Pradejón - Peña Balsamaiso	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Anguiano	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Haro Deportivo - Peña Balsamaiso	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
06.09.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Berceo	2:2
12.04.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Berceo	1:3
30.11.24	Berceo - Peña Balsamaiso	0:2
14.01.24	Peña Balsamaiso - Berceo	3:0
12.03.23	Berceo - Peña Balsamaiso	2:2
05.11.22	Peña Balsamaiso - Berceo	1:0

Berceo - Peña Balsamaiso: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide