Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	TVG


	Bergantiños		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	2.52	3	2.62
	2.71	2.96	2.73
	2.63	3.01	2.68	Watch
	2.63	2.8	2.63
	2.62	2.86	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.51)	2.93 ↑ (2.91)	2.66 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bergantiños
34.7%

Draw
31.1%

UD Ourense
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

31.6%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

32%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bergantiños has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bergantiños than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Bergantiños - UD Ourense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Tass ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, Puime L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 1 - 2, Nunez M. ⚽,
60', 1 - 3, Martinez R. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Bergantiños has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

UD Ourense is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UD Ourense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bergantiños won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Bergantiños won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bergantinos	5	4	1	0	12:5	7	13

Last Results with these Odds

UD Ourense - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.73%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bergantiños FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
18.04.26	Real Oviedo B - Bergantiños	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Bergantiños - Sarriana	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Valladolid B - Bergantiños	3:4 ✺
29.03.26	Bergantiños - Coruxo	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Salamanca - Bergantiños	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWLT
- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
19.04.26	UD Ourense - Lealtad	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - UD Ourense	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	UD Ourense - Gimnástica Segoviana	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Marino de Luanco - UD Ourense	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	UD Ourense - Sámano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
23.11.25	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
16.12.23	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	0:1
27.10.19	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:1
07.04.19	Bergantiños - UD Ourense	2:1
11.11.18	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0

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