Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Main - Round 7

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ta'Qali National Stadium (Ta' Qali) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Johnson A. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Malta	15:30	TVM Sport+


	Birkirkara		Valletta

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.10	2.25
	2.95	2.95	2.25
	3.01	3.02	2.34
	3	3.19	2.27	Watch
	2.95	2.95	2.30
	2.97	3.04	2.26
	3.00	3.05	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (3)	3.04 ↓ (3.19)	2.28 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birkirkara
30.6%

Draw
29.7%

Valletta
39.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.1%

28.3%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

27.8%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birkirkara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Valletta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valletta than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Birkirkara - Valletta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ondoa F. (G) 99. Amarildo 28. Brewer S. 10. Busuttil J. 3. Frazan 77. Garzia A. 97. Kadu 22. Muscat Z. (C) 30. Pablo Gabriel 8. Rafa Santos 27. Sasere F.	90. Maringa Adilson (G) 11. Azzopardi J. 4. Bicakcic E. 9. Gomes B. 33. Mbende E. 94. Morello M. 10. Paiber B. (C) 21. Prsa R. 55. Radic S. 19. Tavares D. 8. Zammit A.
Substitutes
23. El Hazawi D. (G) 2. Felice I. 15. Fenech K. 94. Fernandinho 24. Gill B. 14. Jefferson Vinicius 17. Pahama L. 9. Reid K. 19. Sammut K. (G) 74. Vassallo J. 20. Zahra J.	32. Alex Tanque 18. Ancilleri M. 5. Chetcuti S. 3. Ellul M. 80. Ewurum K. 98. Formosa Z. 13. Frendo L. (G) 44. Micallef N. 23. Sekulovic P. 77. Thaylor 20. Yankam Y.
Coaches
Zammit P.	Micallef T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Zammit A. ⚽,
45+3', Prsa R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Busuttil J. ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
46', Rafa Santos ↓, Reid K. ↑,
46', Kadu ↓, Vassallo J. ↑,
54', Mbende E. 🟨,
59', Prsa R. ↓, Sekulovic P. ↑,
66', Sekulovic P. 🟨,
67', Garzia A. ↓, Jefferson Vinicius ↑,
67', Zammit A. ↓, Ewurum K. ↑,
70', 🟨,
72', Amarildo ↓, Pahama L. ↑,
74', 0 - 2, Sekulovic P. ⚽,
76', 🟨,
79', Morello M. 🟨,
82', Gomes B. ↓, Alex Tanque ↑,
82', Morello M. ↓, Ellul M. ↑,
83', Fernandinho 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birkirkara won 2.

Birkirkara has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Valletta is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Birkirkara has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:26 (averaging 1.2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Birkirkara against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 14:13 goals (averaging 1.4:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Valletta ✔	10	7	1	2	22:9	13	22
6	Birkirkara	10	4	2	4	12:9	3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Birkirkara - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30.08%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
18.09.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Birkirkara	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sliema Wanderers - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Mosta - Birkirkara	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Birkirkara - Hamrun Spartans	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTLLW
- Valletta FC
Maltese Premier League
19.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Valletta	0:3 ✺
13.09.26	Valletta - Balzan	2:2 ✺
Maltese Super Cup
07.09.26	Floriana - Valletta	0:2 ✺
Maltese Premier League
02.09.26	Paola Hibernians - Valletta	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Valletta - Marsaxlokk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese FA Trophy
04.04.26	Valletta - Birkirkara	3:1
Maltese Premier League
08.02.26	Birkirkara - Valletta	1:0
07.01.26	Valletta - Birkirkara	2:0
16.08.25	Valletta - Birkirkara	0:0
Maltese FA Trophy
05.03.25	Birkirkara - Valletta	3:1 ET
Maltese Premier League
09.02.24	Valletta - Birkirkara	0:1
27.09.23	Birkirkara - Valletta	1:1

Birkirkara - Valletta