Match Info

League One - Round 2

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.68	4	4.5
	1.7	3.95	4.45	Watch
	1.73	3.98	4.71
	1.72	3.71	4.55	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.5
	1.72	3.94	4.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.94)	3.85 ↑ (3.65)	4.58 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
55.1%

Draw
24.4%

Plymouth Argyle
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

25.9%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

26%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bolton Wanderers's performance.

Plymouth Argyle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bolton Wanderers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.4%	13.6%	0%

Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bolton (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bolton Wanderers will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 14. Osei-Tutu J. 18. Toal E. (C) 6. Johnston G. 25. Conway M. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 8. Sheehan J. 17. Randall J. 4. Simons X. 11. Gale T. 48. Burstow M.	21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 29. Sorinola M. 6. Szucs K. 44. Palsson V. (C) 22. Galloway B. 19. Boateng M. 23. Ibrahim B. 10. Amaechi X. 17. Watts C. 11. Mumba B. 27. Pepple A.
Substitutes
13. Broome N. (G) 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 21. Erhahon E. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 45. McAtee J. 16. Morley A. 33. Warren C.	13. Baker Z. (G) 14. Benarous A. 39. Finn T. 18. Oseni O. 7. Paterson J. 24. Roberts C. 4. Wiredu B.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Johnston G. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Toal E. ⚽, Sheehan J. (A),
45+2', Sheehan J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Sorinola M. 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Burstow M. ⚽, Cozier-Duberry A. (A),
62', Pepple A. ↓, Paterson J. ↑,
63', Ibrahim B. 🟨,
65', Gale T. ↓, Dacres-Cogley J. ↑,
68', Ibrahim B. ↓, Roberts C. ↑,
68', Amaechi X. ↓, Finn T. ↑,
74', Burstow M. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
76', Palsson V. ↓, Wiredu B. ↑,
77', Galloway B. ↓, Benarous A. ↑,
82', Osei-Tutu J. ↓, Erhahon E. ↑,
83', Simons X. ↓, Warren C. ↑,
87', Mumba B. 🟨,
90', Watts C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 1.

Bolton is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Plymouth's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Bolton has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bolton is the team to beat.

There will not play in Plymouth: Hazard C. (Injury) Pleguezuelo J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Plymouth: Pepple A. (Inactive) Roberts C. (Inactive)

We predict that Bolton will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.76%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
03.08.25	Stockport County - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Bolton Wanderers - Preston North End	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Shrewsbury Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:5 ✺
19.07.25	Hibernian - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Barrow - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWW
- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
02.08.25	Plymouth Argyle - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol City	0:2 ✺
23.07.25	Torquay United - Plymouth Argyle	0:6 ✺
16.07.25	Truro City - Plymouth Argyle	2:3 ✺
11.07.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Plymouth Argyle	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
02.04.23	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	4:0
English League One
07.01.23	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	0:0
27.08.22	Plymouth Argyle - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
12.03.22	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	0:1
19.10.21	Plymouth Argyle - Bolton Wanderers	3:0
English FA Cup
09.11.19	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	0:1

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