What is the expert prediction for Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

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Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, September 13, 2025)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport OTT 3
Albania	SuperSport 5
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 11
Greece	Nova Sports 6
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 3
Iceland	SÝN Sport 5
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 5, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 7
Nigeria	SuperSport OTT 3
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 4
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	Hub Premier 3
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Action, SuperSport OTT 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Bournemouth		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.9
	2.35	3.5	2.9
	2.45	3.55	2.85
	2.4	3.6	2.97
	1.52	3.63	7.57	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.8
	2.47	3.53	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.45)	3.54 ↓ (3.62)	3.55 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
43.8%

Draw
28.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

26.6%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

29.4%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brighton & Hove Albion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	28.1%	15.6%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Bournemouth will win (votes: 18 - 62.1%). Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 3 - 10.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 27.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 44.4% – 79.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Brighton & Hove (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Brighton & Hove (1.77) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 19 high ROI users predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Brighton & Hove (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Petrovic D. (G) 23. Hill J. 44. Milosavljevic V. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 12. Adams T. 8. Scott A. 7. Brooks D. (C) 16. Tavernier M. 24. Semenyo A. 9. Evanilson	1. Verbruggen B. (G) 34. Veltman J. 6. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 29. De Cuyper M. 20. Milner J. 13. Hinshelwood J. 11. Minteh Y. 10. Rutter G. 22. Mitoma K. 18. Welbeck D.
Substitutes
21. Adli A. 2. Araujo J. 4. Cook L. 40. Dennis W. (G) 11. Doak B. 20. Jimenez A. 19. Kluivert J. 22. Kroupi E. J. 6. Soler J.	26. Ayari Y. 17. Baleba C. 21. Boscagli O. 42. Coppola D. 8. Gruda B. 24. Kadioglu F. 23. Steele J. (G) 9. Tzimas S. 14. Watson T.
Coaches
Iraola A.	Hurzeler F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Hinshelwood J. ↓, Ayari Y. ↑,
18', 1 - 0, Scott A. ⚽, Semenyo A. (A),
24', De Cuyper M. ↓, Kadioglu F. ↑,
30', Dunk L. 🟨,
31', Brooks D. 🟨,
36', Senesi M. 🟨,
45+5', Adams T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Mitoma K. ⚽, Minteh Y. (A),
58', Rutter G. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Semenyo A. (Pen),
63', Milner J. 🟨,
67', Welbeck D. ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
67', Rutter G. ↓, Tzimas S. ↑,
67', Milner J. ↓, Baleba C. ↑,
68', Brooks D. ↓, Kluivert J. ↑,
68', Scott A. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
74', Baleba C. 🟨,
86', Tavernier M. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
87', Hill J. ↓, Cook L. ↑,
90+2', Evanilson ↓, Soler J. ↑,
90+6', Jimenez A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 1.

Bournemouth has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Brighton & Hove is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bournemouth: Cook L. (Knee Injury) Smith A. (Hamstring Injury) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: March S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:23. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bournemouth won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.7:1.2).

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Last Results with these Odds

Brighton & Hove Albion - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 34.16%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
30.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Bournemouth	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Bournemouth - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Liverpool - Bournemouth	4:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Bournemouth - Real Sociedad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWLT
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
31.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.25	Oxford United - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:6 ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Everton - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Fulham	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolfsburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.02.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bournemouth	2:1
23.11.24	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2
28.04.24	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:0
24.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bournemouth	3:1
04.04.23	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2
04.02.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bournemouth	1:0
21.01.20	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:1

Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide