Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 5 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Referee: Ponton E. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Boyacá Chicó		Envigado

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.75	3.6	Watch
	2.35	2.7	3.3
	2.35	2.75	3.65	Watch
	2.49	2.81	3.59
	2.3	2.64	3.97
	2.4	2.75	3.6
	2.38	2.72	3.56	Watch
	2.35	2.75	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (1.71)	2.73 ↓ (3.35)	3.62 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Boyacá Chicó
39.6%

Draw
34.4%

Envigado
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

27.5%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

26.9%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boyacá Chicó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boyacá Chicó's form might have worsened.

Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Envigado's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boyacá Chicó than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boyacá Chicó, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Envigado, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Boyacá Chicó - Envigado Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Boyacá Chicó will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Envigado will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Envigado (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Envigado (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Denis D. (G) 17. Ampudia J. 4. Peralta E. 26. Banguero A. 22. Lopez Y. 19. Lozano F. 24. Arango E. 28. Camargo E. 8. Londono K. 16. Hernandez V. 9. Molina J.	12. Escobar R. (G) 15. Cuervo S. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 2. Palacios D. 33. Londono E. 6. Palacio J. 21. Lopez E. (C) 80. Torres C. 26. Arcila D. 34. Diaz L. 11. Garces J.
Substitutes
6. Aedo A. 20. Arango W. 1. Caicedo Vasquez R. A. (G) 29. Colon S. 7. Negrete J. 10. Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 77. Sanchez J.	70. Araujo J. 7. Dawson D. 14. Hinestroza J. 19. Londono S. 29. Ramirez C. 16. Ramirez N. 88. Tovar A. (G)
Coaches
Torres F.	Orozco A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Hernandez V. ↓, Ramirez Raigosa D. A. ↑,
44', Ampudia J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Palacios D. 🟨,
53', Camargo E. 🟨,
61', Camargo E. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
68', Escobar R. 🟨,
69', Torres C. ↓, Dawson D. ↑,
70', Garces J. ↓, Londono S. ↑,
72', Londono E. 🟨,
82', Londono K. ↓, Arango W. ↑,
82', Molina J. ↓, Colon S. ↑,
85', Lopez E. 🟨,
87', Lopez E. ↓, Hinestroza J. ↑,
89', Peralta E. 🟨,
89', Arcila D. 🟨,
90+11', 1 - 0, Lozano F. (Pen),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boyacá Chicó won 3.

Recent form of Boyacá Chicó has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Envigado has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Envigado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Envigado has had a series of home games.

In this match, Boyacá Chicó is considered a favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Boyacá Chicó won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Boyacá Chicó won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:2. (average 1.1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boyacá Chicó
Colombian Primera A
27.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Boyacá Chicó	0:0 ✺
21.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2 ✺
16.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Boyacá Chicó	4:1 ✺
12.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Deportivo Pereira - Boyacá Chicó	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TLLTT
- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera A
01.05.25	Envigado - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
17.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Envigado - América de Cali	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
18.08.24	Boyacá Chicó - Envigado	0:0
01.02.24	Envigado - Boyacá Chicó	2:0
01.09.23	Boyacá Chicó - Envigado	1:0
18.03.23	Envigado - Boyacá Chicó	0:1
23.03.21	Boyacá Chicó - Envigado	3:0
25.01.20	Envigado - Boyacá Chicó	1:0
03.11.18	Envigado - Boyacá Chicó	1:0

Upcoming Matches