Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)

Referee: Ulloa D. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Envigado		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	5	3.2	1.8	Watch
	4.6	3.1	1.78
	5.2	3.25	1.78	Watch
	5.49	3.29	1.8
	5.29	3.21	1.77	Watch
	4.8	3.2	1.8
	5.03	3.32	1.78	Watch
	5.2	3.25	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.08 ↑ (3.9)	3.23 ↑ (3.15)	1.79 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Envigado
18.5%

Draw
29%

Deportes Tolima
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

29.8%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

28.9%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Envigado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Envigado's form might have worsened.

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportes Tolima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Envigado - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Envigado will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Escobar R. (G) 33. Londono E. 2. Palacios D. 19. Londono S. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 14. Hinestroza J. 6. Palacio J. 34. Diaz L. 80. Torres C. 15. Cuervo S. 26. Arcila D. (C)	1. Cuesta W. (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 17. Torres M. 19. Mosquera F. 33. Velasquez S. 6. Trujillo C. 15. Nieto J. (C) 7. Gonzalez J. 25. Arroyo A. 18. Perez K. 24. Parra Osorio A.
Substitutes
20. Catano J. 7. Dawson D. 11. Garces J. 21. Lopez E. 37. Quejada J. 16. Ramirez N. 88. Tovar A. (G)	71. Arrieta C. 12. Azcarate J. (G) 11. Lencina G. 28. Miranda L. 4. Quinones J. 42. Quinones J. 8. Valencia E.
Coaches
Orozco A.	Rescalvo I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Torres C. ⚽, Diaz L. (A),
30', Perez K. 🟨,
45', Diaz L. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Arroyo A. ⚽, Perez K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Cuervo S. 🟨,
51', 2 - 1, Torres M. (Own goal),
56', Hinestroza J. 🟨,
64', Londono S. ↓, Garces J. ↑,
65', Gonzalez J. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
65', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Lencina G. ↑,
67', Palacios D. 🟨,
78', Arcila D. ↓, Ramirez N. ↑,
78', Torres C. ↓, Dawson D. ↑,
78', Arroyo A. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Mosquera F. (Own goal),
83', Perez K. ↓, Miranda L. ↑,
85', Quinones J. 🟨,
86', Ramirez N. 🟨,
90+3', Diaz L. ↓, Catano J. ↑,
90+3', Londono E. ↓, Quejada J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Envigado won 1.

Recent matches Envigado is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Deportes Tolima is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Deportes Tolima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Deportes Tolima is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Envigado won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 17:33 (average 0.9:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Envigado won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:13 (average 1.2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera A
17.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Envigado - América de Cali	1:1 ✺
04.04.25	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	1:2 ✺
23.03.25	Rionegro Águilas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Envigado - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 LTWLT
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
15.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
01.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	1:4 ✺
24.03.25	Deportes Tolima - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
19.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
06.11.24	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	3:0
16.04.24	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	0:2
21.09.23	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	2:0
13.04.23	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	2:1
29.10.22	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	1:1
16.06.22	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	1:0
21.05.22	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	1:4

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