Match Info

SWEDEN: Superettan - Round 14

Date: 28 June 2024, Friday

Location: Domnarvsvallen (Borlange)

Referee: Dufva-Johansson A. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, TV4 Play


	Brage		Gefle

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.52	4.1	5.25
	1.53	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.52	4.55	5.63
	1.54	4.41	5.27
	1.44	4.33	5.5
	1.51	4.5	5.55	Watch
	1.51	4.2	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.76)	4.32 ↑ (3.4)	5.43 ↑ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brage
61.5%

Draw
21.4%

Gefle
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

26.8%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

26.5%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brage has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brage's performance.

Gefle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brage than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brage that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gefle than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Brage - Gefle Predictions

Users Predictions: Brage will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frodig V. (G) 22. Weilid C. 2. Zetterstrom A. 5. Agren O. 23. Redenstrand C. 11. Arvidsson J. 21. Sletsjoe H. 6. Titi A. 7. Tot Wikstrom E. 12. Ieltsin Camoes 10. Berggren G.	1. Jonsson O. (G) 3. Adolfsson J. 29. Rauschenberg M. 5. Hakansson N. 14. Friman S. P. 18. Capotondi C. 44. Ranera I. 16. Persson K. 7. Edqvist A. 11. Englund L. 10. Yakoub A.
Substitutes
18. Abic F. 13. Bernardini A. (G) 3. Gayi E. 14. Izountouemoi S. 17. Jonsson P. 4. Persson M. 20. Sjoberg F.	2. Adel I. 19. Aspgren C. 20. Hjelm A. 9. Hjelte J. 27. Johansson T. (G) 23. Lattman A. 8. Lundin A.
Coaches
Mian J.	Bengtsson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Englund L. ⚽, Friman S. P. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Redenstrand C. ⚽, Ieltsin Camoes (A),
41', Titi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Friman S. P. ↓, Aspgren C. ↑,
59', Persson K. ↓, Lundin A. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Rauschenberg M. ⚽, Edqvist A. (A),
73', Titi A. ↓, Abic F. ↑,
73', Arvidsson J. ↓, Jonsson P. ↑,
77', Capotondi C. 🟨,
83', Yakoub A. ↓, Hjelte J. ↑,
88', Capotondi C. ↓, Hjelm A. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Abic F. ⚽, Tot Wikstrom E. (A),

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 and 13 in the zone Superettan (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brage won 2.

Recent matches Brage is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gefle is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Brage is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Brage won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Brage won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IK Brage
Swedish Superettan
23.06.24	Brage - Sundsvall	5:0 ✺
17.06.24	Trelleborg - Brage	1:0 ✺
01.06.24	Brage - Öster	1:0 ✺
27.05.24	Utsikten - Brage	1:0 ✺
23.05.24	Brage - Degerfors	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLL
- Gefle IF
Swedish Superettan
23.06.24	Varbergs BoIS - Gefle	4:3 ✺
15.06.24	Gefle - Landskrona	1:2 ✺
02.06.24	Örgryte - Gefle	3:0 ✺
26.05.24	Gefle - Örebro	3:1 ✺
22.05.24	Östersund - Gefle	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
05.08.23	Gefle - Brage	2:0
Club Friendly
30.06.23	Gefle - Brage	0:1
Swedish Superettan
19.05.23	Brage - Gefle	1:1
Club Friendly
28.01.23	Gefle - Brage	2:1
18.03.20	Brage - Gefle	8:2
Swedish Superettan
20.08.18	Gefle - Brage	0:2
09.04.18	Brage - Gefle	4:2

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