Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 5

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Referee: Etayo G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Izzi TV
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Burgos		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	6	Watch
	1.60	3.60	5.25
	1.58	3.65	5.3	Watch
	1.64	3.95	6.06
	1.58	3.95	6	Watch
	1.6	3.9	6
	1.61	3.64	6.38	Watch
	1.6	3.8	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.79)	3.76 ↑ (3.36)	5.8 ↑ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos
58.8%

Draw
25%

Ceuta
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

27.8%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

27.4%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burgos's performance.

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burgos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Burgos - Ceuta Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Burgos (1.67) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Burgos will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Cantero A. (G) 23. Dadie Izagirre A. 5. Exposito M. 8. Sierra G. 3. Vilarrasa I. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 20. Gragera J. 12. Vencedor U. 19. Llabres J. 7. Karrikaburu J. 16. Sanchez C. (C)	1. Lopez P. (C) 16. Redruello Nimo C. 6. Hernandez C. 14. Bodiger Y. 3. Matos Jose 8. Zalazar K. 32. Osoro A. 17. Mensah M. 19. Sevikyan E. 29. Sadik O. 7. Camacho A.
Substitutes
10. Appin K. 17. Cantero M. 18. del Cerro S. 9. Fores A. 4. Galdames P. 1. Iribarne B. (G) 24. Lencina S. 15. Luengo O. 22. Martinez B. 36. Martinez I. 11. Mollejo V.	26. Betancourt A. 9. Escobar J. 15. Gonzalez J. 27. Konare U. 34. Mas D. 20. Melendez A. 2. Toni Abad 13. Vallejo G. (G)
Coaches
Francisco S.	Romero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Hernandez C. ⚽, Zalazar K. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Dadie Izagirre A. ⚽, Karrikaburu J. (A),
27', Okoro C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 2 - 1, Karrikaburu J. ⚽, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. (A),
62', Gragera J. 🟨,
66', Zalazar K. 🟨,
66', Karrikaburu J. ↓, Fores A. ↑,
66', Vencedor U. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
66', Llabres J. ↓, Appin K. ↑,
71', Sevikyan E. ↓, Konare U. ↑,
75', Gragera J. ↓, Luengo O. ↑,
81', Mensah M. ↓, Toni Abad ↑,
81', Matos Jose ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
81', Sanchez C. ↓, Lencina S. ↑,
81', Okoro C. ↓, Melendez A. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Redruello Nimo C. (Own goal),
84', Camacho A. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
86', Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 🟨,
90', Dadie Izagirre A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Burgos have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ceuta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Burgos is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Burgos: Lizancos A. (Knee Injury) Luengo O. (Finger Injury)

There will not play in Ceuta: Anuar (Injury) Caparros A. (Red Card) Illescas M. (Injury) Kone K. (Ankle Injury) Lapena A. (Injury) Mamah K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Burgos: Lencina S. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Burgos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Burgos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Burgos CF	8	4	2	2	12:9	3	14
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Ceuta - the odds 4.59 are the expected chance of winning is 20.31%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
06.09.26	Real Oviedo - Burgos	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Burgos - Real Sociedad B	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Sporting de Gijón - Burgos	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Burgos - Córdoba	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Burgos - Athletic Bilbao	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTLWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
05.09.26	Ceuta - Celta de Vigo B	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Mallorca - Ceuta	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceuta - Las Palmas	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	FC Andorra - Ceuta	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.26	Cádiz - Ceuta	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
01.04.26	Burgos - Ceuta	1:1
29.11.25	Ceuta - Burgos	1:0

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