Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - Round 9

Date: 9 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Intwari Stadium (Bujumbura)

Referee: Hambaba H. (Zam)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Maximo 360
Burundi	RTNB TV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Kenya	Gotv, KBC Channel 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-africa	SuperSport PSL
United-kingdom	ITV 1, ITV X, STV, STV Player, UTV
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	FIFA+


	Burundi		Kenya

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	3.7	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.5
	2.28	2.88	3.35	Watch
	2.31	2.88	3.47
	2.53	3.11	2.72	Watch
	2.46	2.91	3.57	Watch
	2.75	3.33	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.78)	3.01 ↓ (3.13)	3.11 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Burundi
38%

Draw
31.5%

Kenya
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

29.6%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burundi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Kenya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kenya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Burundi - Kenya Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Burundi will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Kenya will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Burundi (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nahimana J. (G) Namungo 14. Mabanza V. R. Patro Eisden 19. Nduwarugira C. (C) Borneo 4. Muderi A. Gasogi United 15. Mussa O. Wealdstone 12. Bimenyimana B. Jeddah Club 5. Bigirimana G. Dungannon 3. Weymans M. Beerschot VA 17. Musaga H. 20. Kanakimana B. Brno 7. Girumugisha J. Al-Hilal Omdurman	18. Bwire B. (G) Polokwane City 16. Onyango R. Sogndal 19. Sichenje C. Vojvodina 2. Owino S. Mahia 20. Okwaro M. 13. Harper V. Walsall 11. Wilson W. VPS 10. Odhiambo A. Mahia 8. Abuya D. Young Africans 6. Wilson A. TNS 14. Olunga M. (C) Al Arabi (Qatar)
Substitutes
25. Bamenye F. Orn 21. Bigirimana A. Police 95. Bukuru K. 99. Dushime O. Flambeau du Centre 89. Eldhino M. Bumamuru 11. Jordi L. 94. Kamana K. Aigle Noir 88. Kirongozi R. Police 10. Nahimana S. Pamba 16. Nkurunziza M. (G) RWDM Brussels 92. Nshimirimana J. AS Kigali 23. Rukundo O. (G)	1. Faruk S. (G) Bandari 4. Kibwage M. Tusker 7. Muchiri B. Ulinzi Stars 21. Nabwire M. Police FC 9. Ochieng J. 15. Ogam R. Wolfsberger AC 88. Okoth L. SJK Akatemia 5. Omija A. Etoile Sahel 23. Omondi B. (G) Tusker 17. Omondi B. S. Mahia 94. Ouma T. Lech Poznan 24. Sakari D. Kariobangi Sharks
Coaches
Sangwa P.	McCarthy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Bimenyimana B. 🟥,
6', Bwire B. ↓, Omondi B. ↑,
16', Harper V. 🟨,
27', Okwaro M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Harper V. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
65', Abuya D. ↓, Ochieng J. ↑,
65', Odhiambo A. ↓, Ogam R. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Ogam R. ⚽, Olunga M. (A),
73', Msanga H. ↓, Eldhino M. ↑,
73', Kanakimana B. ↓, Kirongozi R. ↑,
81', Wilson A. ↓, Muchiri B. ↑,
81', Olunga M. ↓, Nabwire M. ↑,
84', Onyango R. 🟨,
85', Bigirimana G. ↓, Bigirimana A. ↑,

Preview

Kenya has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Burundi won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burundi
FIFA World Cup
09.09.25	Gambia - Burundi	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Ivory Coast - Burundi	1:0 ✺
Friendly
06.06.25	Guinea Bissau - Burundi	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
25.03.25	Burundi - Seychelles	5:0 ✺
21.03.25	Burundi - Ivory Coast	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWL
- Kenya
FIFA World Cup
09.09.25	Kenya - Seychelles	5:0 ✺
05.09.25	Kenya - Gambia	1:3 ✺
African Nations Championship
22.08.25	Kenya - Madagascar	1:2 penalties ✺
17.08.25	Zambia - Kenya	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	Kenya - Morocco	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
07.06.24	Kenya - Burundi	1:1
CECAFA Championship
14.12.17	Kenya - Burundi	1:0 ET
25.11.15	Kenya - Burundi	1:1

Burundi - Kenya: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide