The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cailungo 25.4%
Draw 24.6%
Pennarossa 50%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
31.2%
23.9%
44.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.2%
23.9%
44.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cailungo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cailungo's form might have worsened.
Pennarossa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pennarossa's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cailungo than the current prediction. (+5.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cailungo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pennarossa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pennarossa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Cailungo - Pennarossa Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
17', 0 - 1, Valli Casadei M. (Own goal),
40', 1 - 1, Bernardi E. ⚽, Cecconi G. (A),
43', 1 - 2, Abouzziane S. (Penalty Awarded),
45', Depaoli F. 🟥,
45+3', 1 - 3, Mema M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 4, Mema M. ⚽,
74', Valli Casadei M. 🟥,
Preview
First leg result: 0-3.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cailungo won 3.
The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.
Pennarossa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Pennarossa has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
Pennarossa is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Cailungo has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:11 (averaging 1.9:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cailungo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 10:3 goals (averaging 2.5:0.8 per game).
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