The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Calamocha 33.3%
Draw 29.5%
Peña Sport 37.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
29.6%
28.7%
41.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30%
28.3%
41.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Calamocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
Peña Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Calamocha than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Sport than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Calamocha - Peña Sport Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Urdaniz I. ⚽,
33', Rotellar F. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 1 - 1, Gomes N. ⚽,
Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 13th in the Segunda RFEF - Play Out).
Calamocha is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Peña Sport have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Peña Sport could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.