Match Info

Gold Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Herrera K. (Cos)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Australia	06:00	ESPN 2, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Austria	22:00	DAZN
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	16:00	OneSoccer, TLN, TSN 5, Univision Canada, VIVA
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 2
Germany	22:00	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Malaysia	04:00	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	14:00	VIX+, ViX Premium
Netherlands	22:00	ESPN 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Portugal	21:00	Sport TV1
Saudi Arabia	23:00	Aloula, KSA Sports 1
Singapore	04:00	HUB Sports 2
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	Sky Sports Korea
Spain	22:00	GolStadium
Switzerland	22:00	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	23:00	Maincast
United Kingdom	21:00	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
International	20:00	VIX App


	Canada		Guatemala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	4.8	8.5
				Watch
	1.26	5.85	12.51
				Watch
	1.36	4.5	8
	1.24	6.04	13.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.53)	5.3 ↑ (4.18)	10.58 ↑ (6.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canada
73%

Draw
18%

Guatemala
9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.4%

22.8%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

21.8%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canada's performance.

Guatemala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guatemala might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canada than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guatemala than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guatemala could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	15.4%	0%

Canada - Guatemala Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Canada (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Canada will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Canada will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Canada (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. St.Clair D. (G) Minnesota United 2. Johnston A. Celtic 15. De Fougerolles L. 13. Cornelius D. Marseille 22. Laryea R. Toronto FC 17. Buchanan T. Villarreal 23. Sigur N. Hajduk Split 6. Choiniere M. Grasshoppers 14. Shaffelburg J. Nashville SC 12. Oluwaseyi T. Minnesota United 10. David J. (C) Lille	12. Navarro K. (G) Municipal 7. Herrera A. DC United 4. Pinto J. (C) Comunicaciones 3. Samayoa N. Poli Iasi 16. Morales J. Municipal 13. Robles S. Comunicaciones 5. Rosales J. Antigua 11. Munoz R. Municipal 20. Escobar O. CF Montreal 9. Rubin R. Charleston 18. Santis O. Antigua
Substitutes
3. Bassong Z. Sporting Kansas City 16. Crepeau M. (G) Portland Timbers 24. David P. Royale Union SG 11. Jebbison D. Bournemouth 26. Knight-Lebel J. Bristol City 8. Kone I. Rennes 9. Larin C. Mallorca 18. McGill T. (G) Brighton 4. Miller K. Portland Timbers 25. Nelson J. Vancouver Whitecaps 19. Saliba N. CF Montreal 5. Waterman J. CF Montreal	24. Aguilar C. Malacateco 10. Altan P. Municipal 2. Ardon J. Antigua 17. Castellanos O. Antigua 26. Evans M. 6. Lemus E. Comunicaciones 14. Lom D. Comunicaciones 21. Moran L. (G) Antigua 19. Ordonez A. Zimbru Chisinau 25. Ramirez K. Malacateco 15. Rivera D. Phoenix Rising 8. Saravia R. Municipal
Coaches
Marsch J.	Tena L. F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, David J. (Pen),
40', Shaffelburg J. 🟨,
45+4', Shaffelburg J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Buchanan T. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,
60', Rubin R. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Rubin R. ⚽, Santis O. (A),
71', Escobar O. ↓, Altan P. ↑,
71', Munoz R. ↓, Ordonez A. ↑,
71', Sigur N. ↓, Saliba N. ↑,
71', Oluwaseyi T. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
77', Rubin R. ↓, Lom D. ↑,
83', Rosales J. ↓, Saravia R. ↑,
90+1', David J. ↓, David P. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, David P. (Pen),
1, Santis O. (Pen),
2, Jebbison D. (Pen),
2, Samayoa N. (Pen),
3, Cornelius D. (Pen),
3, Herrera A. (Pen),
4, Choiniere M. (Pen),
4, Lom D. (Pen),
5, Larin C. (Pen),
5, Pinto J. (Pen),
6, Saliba N. (Pen),
6, Altan P. (Pen),
7, De Fougerolles L. (Pen),
7, Morales J. (Pen),

Preview

Canada is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Guatemala has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Canada is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Canada will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Canada won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canada
Gold Cup
24.06.25	Canada - Salvador	2:0 ✺
21.06.25	Curaçao - Canada	1:1 ✺
17.06.25	Canada - Honduras	6:0 ✺
Friendly
10.06.25	Canada - Ivory Coast	0:0 ✺
07.06.25	Canada - Ukraine	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTWTW
- Guatemala
Gold Cup
24.06.25	Guadeloupe - Guatemala	2:3 ✺
20.06.25	Guatemala - Panama	0:1 ✺
16.06.25	Jamaica - Guatemala	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Jamaica - Guatemala	3:0 ✺
06.06.25	Guatemala - Dominican Republic	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Gold Cup
01.07.23	Guatemala - Canada	0:0
Friendly
22.01.22	Guatemala - Canada	Canceled
27.03.15	Canada - Guatemala	1:0

Canada - Guatemala