Match Info

Gold Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)

Referee: Herrera K. (Cos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Australia	ESPN 2, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	OneSoccer, TLN, TSN 5, Univision Canada, VIVA
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
Netherlands	ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Saudi-arabia	Aloula, KSA Sports 1
Singapore	HUB Sports 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Sky Sports Korea
Spain	GolStadium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Maincast
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	VIX App


	Canada		Guatemala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	4.8	8.5
				Watch
	1.26	5.85	12.51
				Watch
	1.36	4.5	8
	1.24	6.04	13.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.53)	5.3 ↑ (4.18)	10.58 ↑ (6.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canada
73%

Draw
18%

Guatemala
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

22.8%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

22.2%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canada's performance.

Guatemala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guatemala might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canada than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guatemala than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guatemala could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	15.4%	0%

Canada - Guatemala Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Canada (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Canada will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Canada will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Canada (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. St.Clair D. (G) Minnesota United 2. Johnston A. Celtic 15. De Fougerolles L. 13. Cornelius D. Marseille 22. Laryea R. Toronto FC 17. Buchanan T. Villarreal 23. Sigur N. Hajduk Split 6. Choiniere M. Grasshoppers 14. Shaffelburg J. Nashville SC 12. Oluwaseyi T. Minnesota United 10. David J. (C) Lille	12. Navarro K. (G) Municipal 7. Herrera A. DC United 4. Pinto J. (C) Comunicaciones 3. Samayoa N. Poli Iasi 16. Morales J. Municipal 13. Robles S. Comunicaciones 5. Rosales J. Antigua 11. Munoz R. Municipal 20. Escobar O. CF Montreal 9. Rubin R. Charleston 18. Santis O. Antigua
Substitutes
3. Bassong Z. Sporting Kansas City 16. Crepeau M. (G) Portland Timbers 24. David P. Royale Union SG 11. Jebbison D. Bournemouth 26. Knight-Lebel J. Bristol City 8. Kone I. Rennes 9. Larin C. Mallorca 18. McGill T. (G) Brighton 4. Miller K. Portland Timbers 25. Nelson J. Vancouver Whitecaps 19. Saliba N. CF Montreal 5. Waterman J. CF Montreal	24. Aguilar C. Malacateco 10. Altan P. Municipal 2. Ardon J. Antigua 17. Castellanos O. Antigua 26. Evans M. 6. Lemus E. Comunicaciones 14. Lom D. Comunicaciones 21. Moran L. (G) Antigua 19. Ordonez A. Zimbru Chisinau 25. Ramirez K. Malacateco 15. Rivera D. Phoenix Rising 8. Saravia R. Municipal
Coaches
Marsch J.	Tena L. F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, David J. (Pen),
40', Shaffelburg J. 🟨,
45+4', Shaffelburg J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Buchanan T. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,
60', Rubin R. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Rubin R. ⚽, Santis O. (A),
71', Escobar O. ↓, Altan P. ↑,
71', Munoz R. ↓, Ordonez A. ↑,
71', Sigur N. ↓, Saliba N. ↑,
71', Oluwaseyi T. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
77', Rubin R. ↓, Lom D. ↑,
83', Rosales J. ↓, Saravia R. ↑,
90+1', David J. ↓, David P. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, David P. (Pen),
1, Santis O. (Pen),
2, Jebbison D. (Pen),
2, Samayoa N. (Pen),
3, Cornelius D. (Pen),
3, Herrera A. (Pen),
4, Choiniere M. (Pen),
4, Lom D. (Pen),
5, Larin C. (Pen),
5, Pinto J. (Pen),
6, Saliba N. (Pen),
6, Altan P. (Pen),
7, De Fougerolles L. (Pen),
7, Morales J. (Pen),

Preview

Canada is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Guatemala has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Canada is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Canada will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Canada won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canada
Gold Cup
24.06.25	Canada - Salvador	2:0 ✺
21.06.25	Curaçao - Canada	1:1 ✺
17.06.25	Canada - Honduras	6:0 ✺
Friendly
10.06.25	Canada - Ivory Coast	0:0 ✺
07.06.25	Canada - Ukraine	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTWTW
- Guatemala
Gold Cup
24.06.25	Guadeloupe - Guatemala	2:3 ✺
20.06.25	Guatemala - Panama	0:1 ✺
16.06.25	Jamaica - Guatemala	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Jamaica - Guatemala	3:0 ✺
06.06.25	Guatemala - Dominican Republic	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Gold Cup
01.07.23	Guatemala - Canada	0:0
Friendly
22.01.22	Guatemala - Canada	Canceled
27.03.15	Canada - Guatemala	1:0

Canada - Guatemala: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide