Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 8

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio da Montanha (Nova Veneza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Fanatiz


	Caravaggio		Joinville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	2.7	2.5
	2.9	2.7	2.5
	3.19	2.77	2.52
	2.97	2.89	2.47	Watch
	2.79	3.29	2.39
	2.9	2.7	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.7)	2.84 ↓ (3.1)	2.48 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caravaggio
31.1%

Draw
32.1%

Joinville
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

29.7%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

29.3%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caravaggio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caravaggio than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Caravaggio - Joinville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arthur Vellasque (G) 6. Arthur Augusto 9. Elyson 10. Fernando Portel 7. Gabriel Henrique 5. Henik 8. Henrique Freitas 3. Jesse Costa 4. Pavani 2. Rafael Compri 11. Renan	1. Bruno Pianissolla (G) 5. Breno Santos 9. Cristian Renato 2. Danilo Belao 11. Danilo Matielo 6. Ernandes 4. Guti 7. Julio Cesar 10. Lucas de Sa 3. Naldo 8. Yalle
Substitutes
19. Genesis 20. Juninho 21. Lucas Matheus 23. Mateus Goiano 22. Matheus Joaquim 12. Niccolas (G) 16. Padilha 14. Ricardo 18. Ruan 17. Thauan 13. Vinicius Barcellos 15. Wilian Carvalho	14. Carlos Alexandre 18. Joao Gabriel 17. Joao Mafra 22. Juninho 23. Keke 16. Leo Rigo 20. Marquinhos Brazion 19. Neto A. 21. Rickelme 12. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 15. Ryan 25. Vinicius Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Julio Cesar ⚽,
19', Yalle 🟨,
39', Jesse Costa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gabriel Henrique ↓, Ruan ↑,
46', Jesse Costa ↓, Vinicius Barcellos ↑,
46', Elyson ↓, Genesis ↑,
52', Guti ↓, Leo Rigo ↑,
56', Henrique Freitas ↓, Padilha ↑,
57', Naldo 🟨,
66', Cristian Renato 🟨,
67', Danilo Matielo ↓, Keke ↑,
67', Lucas de Sa ↓, Marquinhos Brazion ↑,
73', Arthur Augusto ↓, Lucas Matheus ↑,
74', Vinicius Barcellos 🟨,
79', Julio Cesar ↓, Joao Mafra ↑,
80', Breno Santos ↓, Vinicius Paulista ↑,
90', Ernandes 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 11 in the zone Relegation and 10).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Joinville could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caravaggio FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.02.25	Concórdia - Caravaggio	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
29.01.25	Brusque - Caravaggio	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Caravaggio	1:1 ✺
22.01.25	Caravaggio - Avaí	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWLTT
- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.02.25	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Avaí - Joinville	3:0 ✺
29.01.25	Criciúma - Joinville	3:0 ✺
25.01.25	Joinville - Brusque	1:1 ✺
22.01.25	Joinville - Concórdia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLLTW

Caravaggio - Joinville: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide