Match Info

Serie B - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio dei Marmi (Carrara)

Referee: Mucera G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Carrarese		Avellino

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.85	3.3	Watch
	2.28	2.92	3.3	Watch
	2.44	2.97	3.52
	2.30	2.93	3.41	Watch
	2.31	3.16	3.33	Watch
	2.2	3.05	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.2)	2.98 ↓ (3.3)	3.39 (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrarese
40.7%

Draw
31.5%

Avellino
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

28.8%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.7%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Carrarese - Avellino Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carrarese: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Avellino (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bleve M. (G) 5. Salamon B. 26. Ruggeri F. 10. Bozhanaj K. 3. Imperiale M. (C) 11. Cicconi M. 13. Bouah D. 17. Zuelli E. 70. Hasa L. 9. Abiuso F. 44. Sekulov N.	1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 2. Missori F. 44. Simic L. 23. Cagnano A. 6. Palmiero L. (C) 56. Enrici P. 24. Sounas D. 94. Insigne R. 14. Biasci T. 17. Crespi V.
Substitutes
80. Accornero F. 30. Arena A. 37. Calabrese N. 28. Di Stefano F. 32. Finotto M. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 6. Oliana F. 77. Parlanti G. 21. Rubino T. 18. Schiavi N. 92. Torregrossa E. 72. Zanon S.	21. Armellino M. 39. Besaggio M. 30. Daffara G. (G) 63. Fontanarosa A. 8. Gyabuaa M. 16. Kumi J. 32. Lescano F. 79. Manzi C. 78. Milani A. 20. Palumbo M. 33. Panico G. 10. Russo R.
Coaches
Calabro A.	Biancolino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
1', Simic L. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Abiuso F. ⚽, Sekulov N. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Crespi V. ⚽, Sounas D. (A),
22', Enrici P. 🟨,
25', 2 - 1, Cicconi M. (Pen),
30', Enrici P. 🟨,
37', 2 - 2, Ruggeri F. (Own goal),
38', Simic L. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
39', Insigne R. ↓, Fontanarosa A. ↑,
44', Biasci T. 🟨,
44', Bozhanaj K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Biasci T. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
46', Bozhanaj K. ↓, Arena A. ↑,
56', 2 - 3, Russo R. ⚽, Crespi V. (A),
57', Hasa L. ↓, Schiavi N. ↑,
58', Salamon B. ↓, Zanon S. ↑,
62', Missori F. ↓, Manzi C. ↑,
68', 2 - 4, Besaggio M. ⚽, Crespi V. (A),
69', Sekulov N. ↓, Finotto M. ↑,
72', Crespi V. ↓, Lescano F. ↑,
73', Bouah D. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,
78', Fontanarosa A. 🟨,
82', 3 - 4, Schiavi N. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Carrarese has had a series of away games.

Carrarese will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Carrarese: Belloni N. (Inactive) Mazzini S. (Shoulder Injury) Schiavi N. (Inactive) Torregrossa E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L. (Knee Injury) De Cristofaro A. (Knee Injury) Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Pane P. (Muscle Injury) Patierno C. (Illness) Rigione M. (Muscle Injury) Tutino G. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Carrarese: Bozhanaj K. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carrarese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Carrarese - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 43.18%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.09.25	Catanzaro - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Carrarese - Padova	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Spezia - Carrarese	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Udinese - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.25	Camaiore - Carrarese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TTWLW
- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
12.09.25	Avellino - Monza	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Frosinone - Avellino	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
10.08.25	Avellino - Audace Cerignola	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Avellino - Picerno	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega Pro C1/B
13.01.13	Avellino - Carrarese	2:1

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