Match Info

Date: 12 December 2021, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Cascina Valdera		Trestina

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Cascina Valdera
27.1%

Draw
28.1%

Trestina
44.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32%

30%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

21.6%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cascina Valdera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Trestina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trestina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cascina Valdera than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trestina than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Trestina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Play Out and 6).

Cascina Valdera is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Trestina is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cascina Valdera could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Trestina will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cascina Valdera ASD
Italian Serie D - Group E
08.12.21	Pro Livorno Sorgenti - Cascina Valdera	2:3 ✺
05.12.21	Cascina Valdera - UniPomezia	0:1 ✺
28.11.21	Tiferno Lerchi - Cascina Valdera	1:0 ✺
21.11.21	Cascina Valdera - Lornano Badesse	0:1 ✺
14.11.21	San Donato Tavarnelle - Cascina Valdera	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLLL
- SC Trestina
Italian Serie D - Group E
08.12.21	Trestina - Rieti	2:2 ✺
04.12.21	Trestina - Lornano Badesse	1:2 ✺
28.11.21	UniPomezia - Trestina	0:1 ✺
20.11.21	Trestina - Cannara	3:1 ✺
14.11.21	Flaminia Civita Castellana - Trestina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLWWT

Cascina Valdera - Trestina