The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Castellanzese 32.3%
Draw 27.1%
Leon 40.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.1%
28.5%
38.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33%
28.4%
38.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castellanzese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
Leon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leon than the current prediction. (-2.1%)
Castellanzese - Leon Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Chessa M. ⚽,
32', Boccadamo S. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs: )).
Castellanzese is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Leon is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins โ 4).
Leon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Leon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Castellanzese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).
Including home match between the teams, Castellanzese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Leon
6
2
3
1
9:7
2
9
Last Results with these Odds
Castellanzese - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.11%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
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