Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 28

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Pavia		Castellanzese

	1	X	2
	2.48	2.92	2.78
	2.75	2.62	2.78
	2.7	2.74	2.8	Watch
	2.67	2.64	2.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.47)	2.73 ↓ (2.99)	2.79 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavia
34.2%

Draw
33.2%

Castellanzese
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

30.3%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

31.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Castellanzese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavia than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (-1%)

Pavia - Castellanzese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Itraloni P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: ) and 11).

In recent matches, Pavia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castellanzese is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pavia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Castellanzese - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.09%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
15.03.26	Villa Valle - Pavia	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Pavia - Varesina	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Pavia - Brusaporto	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Folgore Caratese - Pavia	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Pavia - Real Calepina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TTWLW
- USD Castellanzese
Italian Serie D - Group B
18.03.26	Varesina - Castellanzese	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Castellanzese - Vogherese	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Brusaporto - Castellanzese	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Castellanzese - Villa Valle	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Real Calepina - Castellanzese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
09.11.25	Castellanzese - Pavia	0:0

Pavia - Castellanzese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide