Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 30

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Castilleja		Conil

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2.02
	3.18	3.47	2.05
	1.54	4.01	5.45	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.05
	3.22	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.76)	3.44 ↑ (3.21)	2.72 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castilleja
34.6%

Draw
28.9%

Conil
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

28.4%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

27.8%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castilleja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Conil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castilleja than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Conil than the current prediction. (+3%)

Castilleja - Conil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Matos D. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Romero S. ⚽,
44', 2 - 1, Mustafa ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 3 - 1, Dominguez P. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 7).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Castilleja may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Castilleja won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Castilleja won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Conil	5	2	0	3	4:7	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Conil - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 38.62%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castilleja CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
02.04.26	Atlético Central - Castilleja	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Castilleja - Utrera	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Dos Hermanas - Castilleja	5:1 ✺
15.03.26	Castilleja - Cadiz CF B	2:7 ✺
08.03.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Castilleja	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.6 WWLLL
- Conil CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
05.04.26	Conil - Coria CF	0:1 ✺
28.03.26	Ceuta B - Conil	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Conil - Córdoba B	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Chiclana - Conil	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Tomares - Conil	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
06.12.25	Conil - Castilleja	2:2
23.05.21	Castilleja - Conil	0:0

Castilleja - Conil: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide