Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 9

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday


	Catanduva		Marília

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.88	2.92
	2.59	2.71	2.75
	2.6	2.8	2.85	Watch
	2.63	2.63	2.8
	2.57	2.77	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.49)	2.76 ↓ (2.9)	2.82 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanduva
35.3%

Draw
32.7%

Marília
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

31.6%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

32%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanduva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Marília has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanduva than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marília than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Catanduva - Marília Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 0 - 1, Cirilo ⚽,
90+10', 1 - 1, Macena ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent performances by Catanduva have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marília is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Catanduva won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Catanduva won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Catanduva FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
21.02.26	Rio Branco de Americana - Catanduva	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Catanduva - União Barbarense	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	EC São Bernardo - Catanduva	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Catanduva - Rio Claro	0:0 ✺
04.02.26	União Suzano - Catanduva	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLTW
- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
21.02.26	União São João - Marília	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Rio Preto - Marília	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Marília - União Barbarense	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Itapirense - Marília	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
26.02.25	Marília - Catanduva	3:1
16.03.24	Catanduva - Marília	1:1

Catanduva - Marília: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide