Match Info

Serie B - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Di Marco D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Catanzaro		Carrarese

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.40	4.50	Watch
	1.77	3.60	4.33
	1.84	3.40	4.25
	1.80	3.68	4.92
	1.83	3.48	4.34	Watch
	1.76	3.60	4.85
	1.83	3.46	4.58	Watch
	1.79	3.50	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.92)	3.52 ↓ (3.55)	4.53 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
52.4%

Draw
26.8%

Carrarese
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

26.3%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

23%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Catanzaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carrarese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Catanzaro - Carrarese Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 24. Ruggero M. 4. Matias Antonini 26. Verrengia B. 93. Dorval M. 10. Petriccione J. 98. Mosti N. 30. Alesi G. 20. Pafundi S. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 31. Pecorino E.	1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 13. Ruggeri F. 6. Oliana F. 33. Reale F. 28. Martini J. 77. Parlanti G. 18. Schiavi N. (C) 17. Topalovic L. 73. Rouhi J. 9. Abiuso F. 11. Cisse M.
Substitutes
7. Buso N. 27. Candela A. 21. Cassa F. 29. Di Francesco F. 62. Frosinini R. 18. Garnica A. 14. Giovane S. 3. Imperiale M. 19. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 80. Reita F. 28. Tchaouna F.	7. Belloni N. 21. Bonfanti N. 23. Braunoder M. 70. Cudrig N. 20. Esteves G. 32. Finotto M. 12. Garofani G. (G) 8. Khafi Y. 5. Macchioni T. 91. Marconi G. 41. Romani L. 10. Rubino T.
Coaches
Gorgone G.	Cioffi G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Topalovic L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Verrengia B. ↓, Imperiale M. ↑,
53', Mosti N. 🟨,
56', Parlanti G. 🟨,
62', Cioffi G. 🟨,
67', Topalovic L. ↓, Rubino T. ↑,
67', Cisse M. ↓, Marconi G. ↑,
67', Pecorino E. ↓, Koffi N. ↑,
67', Ruggero M. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
67', Mosti N. ↓, Tchaouna F. ↑,
76', Martini J. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
76', Parlanti G. ↓, Cudrig N. ↑,
78', Tchaouna F. 🟨,
81', Dorval M. ↓, Garnica A. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Iemmello P. ⚽, Pafundi S. (A),
87', Schiavi N. ↓, Bonfanti N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 1.

Recent form of Catanzaro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carrarese is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Catanzaro is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: D'Alessandro M. (Injury) Frosinini R. (Inactive) Pafundi S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Carrarese: Vujevic D. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Catanzaro: 0.97% Carrarese: 0.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	2:6	-4	1

Last Results with these Odds

Carrarese - the odds 3.73 are the expected chance of winning is 25.04%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
05.09.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Catanzaro	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Pisa - Catanzaro	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Vicenza Virtus - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.26	Catanzaro - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:3 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.26	Catanzaro - Giugliano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.09.26	Carrarese - Empoli	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ascoli - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Carrarese - Mantova	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.26	Torino - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.26	Napoli - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.03.26	Carrarese - Catanzaro	3:3
13.09.25	Catanzaro - Carrarese	1:1
12.04.25	Carrarese - Catanzaro	2:2
01.09.24	Catanzaro - Carrarese	3:1
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
14.04.13	Catanzaro - Carrarese	2:3
02.12.12	Carrarese - Catanzaro	2:2
Coppa Italia
05.08.12	Carrarese - Catanzaro	N/A

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