Match Info

Date: 1 August 2021, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Caxias		Joinville

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Caxias
42.7%

Draw
33.3%

Joinville
24.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41%

31.6%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

25.3%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caxias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+17.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joinville could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Recent matches Caxias is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Joinville is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Joinville could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Caxias will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Caxias won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Caxias won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie D
24.07.21	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Caxias	0:0 ✺
18.07.21	Caxias - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:0 ✺
10.07.21	Joinville - Caxias	2:0 ✺
04.07.21	Caxias - Aimoré	2:1 ✺
26.06.21	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLWT
- Joinville
Brazilian Serie D
24.07.21	Joinville - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves	0:0 ✺
17.07.21	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - Joinville	0:1 ✺
10.07.21	Joinville - Caxias	2:0 ✺
04.07.21	Rio Branco PR - Joinville	0:0 ✺
26.06.21	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWWTT

Caxias - Joinville