Match Info

Serie B - Round 24

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ceará		Londrina

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.6	Watch
	1.83	3.40	3.90
	1.75	3.4	4.4	Watch
	2.06	3.3	4.13
	1.91	3.37	4.12	Watch
	2.03	3.2	4
	2.04	3.19	3.78	Watch
	2.01	3.2	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.83)	3.28 ↓ (3.5)	3.95 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
47.8%

Draw
28.5%

Londrina
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

26%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Ceará - Londrina Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Londrina will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Matheus Nogueira (G) 18. Julio Cesar 4. Luiz Otavio 71. Gabriel Rocha 6. Savio 60. Enzo Lodovico 26. Richardson (C) 81. Joao Gabriel 20. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 40. Melk 99. Lucca	30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 75. Kaue Leonardo 3. Yago Lincoln 15. Gabriel Lacerda 34. Heron 8. Lucas Marques (C) 20. Joao Vitor 7. Vitinho Mota 32. Joao Tavares 11. Pablo Dyego 23. Willian Pottker
Substitutes
86. Aloisio 88. Caio 21. Giovanni Pavani 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 77. Lenny Lobato 7. Lopez R. 11. Lucas Mugni 13. Luiz Otavio 2. Ramos R. 12. Sanchez 29. Vina 45. Vini Uchella	44. Caio Rodrigues 55. Chumbinho 9. Gilberto 77. Guilherme Dantas 33. Kevyn 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 2. Nino Paraiba 28. Rai Nascimento 5. Tarik 96. Thalis 4. Wallace
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Rogerio Micale

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Joao Vitor (Penalty Awarded),
32', Yago Lincoln 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Gabriel Rocha ⚽,
45+2', Joao Tavares 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Savio ↓, Sanchez ↑,
46', Joao Tavares ↓, Guilherme Dantas ↑,
51', Vitinho Mota ↓, Rai Nascimento ↑,
58', Lucca ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
58', Richardson ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Luiz Otavio ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
67', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
68', Heron ↓, Kevyn ↑,
68', Pablo Dyego ↓, Gilberto ↑,
79', Julio Cesar ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
83', Joao Vitor ↓, Chumbinho ↑,
86', Melk ↓, Caio ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3.

Ceará has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Londrina is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ceará is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Bryan Borges (Thigh Injury) Eder (Injury) Enzo Lodovico (Inactive) Gilmar (Injury) Matheus Araujo (Yellow Cards) Thalisson (Knee Injury) Vina (Muscle Injury) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Londrina: Geovane Meurer (Inactive)

There are questionable in Londrina: Thalis (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.06%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
18.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Ceará - Cuiabá	1:3 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	3:4 ✺
22.07.26	Ceará - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWL
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
18.08.26	Londrina - Atlético Goianiense	0:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sport Recife - Londrina	2:1 ✺
10.08.26	Goiás - Londrina	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
22.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Londrina - Ceará	0:0
06.09.23	Ceará - Londrina	3:1
24.05.23	Londrina - Ceará	1:3
Copa do Brasil
21.02.18	Londrina - Ceará	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.17	Londrina - Ceará	3:2
02.06.17	Ceará - Londrina	1:0
17.09.16	Londrina - Ceará	1:1

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