Match Info

Serie D - Round 6

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday


	Ceilândia		Aparecidense

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.1	3.6
	1.99	3	3.8
	2.04	2.99	4.08
	2	2.98	3.96	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	1.98	2.92	3.97
	1.99	3	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.82)	2.98 ↓ (3.45)	3.82 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceilândia
45.6%

Draw
30.5%

Aparecidense
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

26.1%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

25.2%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceilândia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Aparecidense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceilândia than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceilândia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aparecidense than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Ceilândia - Aparecidense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
18', 0 - 1, Buba ⚽,
25', 0 - 2, Kaio Nunes ⚽,
41', 0 - 3, Kaio Nunes ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 3, Everaldo ⚽,
65', 🟥,
90+7', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceilândia won 2.

Ceilândia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aparecidense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aparecidense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ceilândia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ceilândia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 2.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceilândia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceilândia
Brazilian Serie D
17.05.25	Mixto - Ceilândia	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Luverdense - Ceilândia	2:2 ✺
03.05.25	Ceilândia - Capital CF Ltda	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Ceilândia - Goiânia	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Goianésia - Ceilândia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TTWWW
- AA Aparecidense
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Aparecidense - Fluminense	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
17.05.25	Aparecidense - Goiânia	3:1 ✺
04.05.25	Goianésia - Aparecidense	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Fluminense - Aparecidense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.25	Aparecidense - Mixto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
19.05.18	Ceilândia - Aparecidense	4:4
27.04.18	Aparecidense - Ceilândia	3:2
30.07.16	Ceilândia - Aparecidense	2:1
23.07.16	Aparecidense - Ceilândia	0:0
09.07.16	Ceilândia - Aparecidense	3:0
18.06.16	Aparecidense - Ceilândia	3:2

Ceilândia - Aparecidense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide