What is the expert prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester City?

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Chelsea vs Manchester City Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, May 10, 2026)

Match Info

Women’s FA Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Kingsmeadow (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Australia	Stan Sport
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Iran	Persiana Sports 4
Japan	U-NEXT
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC RED Button, BBC Sport, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter


	Chelsea		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.45	3.25
	2	3.55	3.38
	1.36	4.82	7.35	Watch
	2	3.3	3.3
	1.95	3.5	3.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.22)	3.72 ↑ (3.46)	4.12 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
51.4%

Draw
25.5%

Manchester City
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

26.2%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

24.6%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelsea's performance.

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chelsea that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Hampton H. (G) 2. Carpenter E. 26. Buchanan K. 5. Buurman V. 21. Charles N. 8. Cuthbert E. (C) 30. Walsh K. 6. Nusken S. 12. Thompson A. 20. Kerr S. 10. James L.	35. Keating K. (G) 18. Casparij K. 4. Rose J. 5. Greenwood A. (C) 15. Ouahabi L. 19. Blindkilde L. 25. Hasegawa Y. 6. Clinton G. 14. Kerolin 11. Hemp L. 9. Shaw K.
Substitutes
17. Baltimore S. 33. Beever-Jones A. 22. Bronze L. 19. Kaneryd J. 18. Kaptein W. 1. Peng L. (G) 32. Potter A. 42. Sarwie C. 38. Spencer R. (G)	24. Beney I. 7. Coombs L. 1. Cumings E. (G) 8. Fowler M. 20. Fujino A. 22. Lohmann S. 46. Murphy L. 28. Prior G. 13. Wienroither L.
Coaches
Bompastor S.	Jeglertz A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Cuthbert E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', 2 - 0, Kerr S. ⚽,
66', Casparij K. ↓, Beney I. ↑,
66', Clinton G. ↓, Fujino A. ↑,
70', Buurman V. ↓, Bronze L. ↑,
79', James L. 🟨,
80', Thompson A. ↓, Kaneryd J. ↑,
85', Ouahabi L. ↓, Fowler M. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Fowler M. ⚽, Beney I. (A),
90+1', 2 - 2, Shaw K. ⚽, Beney I. (A),
90+2', James L. ↓, Baltimore S. ↑,
90+3', Kerr S. ↓, Beever-Jones A. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
97', Fujino A. 🟨,
98', Buchanan K. ↓, Kaptein W. ↑,
99', Blindkilde L. ↓, Lohmann S. ↑,
103', 2 - 3, Shaw K. ⚽, Hasegawa Y. (A),
120+3', Kerolin ↓, Coombs L. ↑,
120+3', Shaw K. ↓, Murphy L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4.

Chelsea has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Manchester City is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chelsea could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:23. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea LFC
English WSL
03.05.26	Leicester City - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
26.04.26	Everton - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
English FA Cup Women
06.04.26	Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
01.04.26	Chelsea - Arsenal LFC	1:0 ✺
English WSL
29.03.26	Chelsea - Aston Villa	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWW
- Manchester City WFC
English WSL
03.05.26	Manchester City - Liverpool LFC	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	3:2 ✺
English FA Cup Women
06.04.26	Birmingham City LFC - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
English WSL
28.03.26	Manchester United - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
21.03.26	Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspur	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English WSL
01.02.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	5:1
English League Cup Women
21.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	0:1
English WSL
05.09.25	Chelsea - Manchester City	2:1
UEFA Champions League Women
27.03.25	Chelsea - Manchester City	3:0
English WSL
23.03.25	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:2
UEFA Champions League Women
19.03.25	Manchester City - Chelsea	2:0
English League Cup Women
15.03.25	Chelsea - Manchester City	2:1

Chelsea - Manchester City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide