Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 13 December 2022, Tuesday

Location: Whaddon Road (Cheltenham)

Referee: Mather S. (Eng)


	Cheltenham Town		Chelsea U21

	1	X	2
	1.46	4	5.75
	1.52	4.25	4.9
	1.48	4.3	5.8
	1.52	4.45	5.71
	1.47	3.9	5.8
	1.5	4.45	5.9
	1.47	4.3	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (2.1)	4.24 ↑ (3.8)	5.64 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cheltenham Town
61.9%

Draw
21.8%

Chelsea U21
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

24.7%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

26.3%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cheltenham Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cheltenham Town's performance.

Chelsea U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chelsea U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cheltenham Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea U21 than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelsea U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	15%	15%

Cheltenham Town - Chelsea U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 28 - 70%). Chelsea U21 will win (votes: 6 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cheltenham: 55.8% – 84.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cheltenham is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Chelsea U21 is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Chelsea U21 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Cheltenham have a series of guest games.

Cheltenham will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cheltenham Town
English League One
10.12.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
02.12.22	Charlton Athletic - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
22.11.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cheltenham Town	1:2 penalties ✺
English League One
19.11.22	Cheltenham Town - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Ipswich Town - Cheltenham Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 LWWWT
- Chelsea U21
English EFL Trophy
22.11.22	Peterborough United - Chelsea U21	2:4 ✺
English Premier League 2
07.11.22	Chelsea U21 - Tottenham Hotspur U21	3:0 ✺
30.10.22	Brighton & Hove Albion U21 - Chelsea U21	2:2 ✺
22.10.22	Chelsea U21 - Blackburn Rovers U21	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Leyton Orient - Chelsea U21	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
26.10.21	Cheltenham Town - Chelsea U21	1:0 penalties

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