Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Chengdu Rongcheng		Johor Darul Takzim

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	3.9	3.45	1.85
	4.34	3.67	1.85
	2.07	3.92	2.90	Watch
	3.71	3.83	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (2.07)	3.72 ↓ (3.92)	2.13 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chengdu Rongcheng
27.9%

Draw
26.3%

Johor Darul Takzim
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

23.6%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

24%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chengdu Rongcheng has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chengdu Rongcheng's form might have worsened.

Johor Darul Takzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Johor Darul Takzim's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chengdu Rongcheng than the current prediction. (+17.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chengdu Rongcheng, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Johor Darul Takzim than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Johor Darul Takzim, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	15%	75%

Chengdu Rongcheng - Johor Darul Takzim Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Chengdu Rongcheng will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Johor will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Johor: 56% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chengdu Rongcheng (2.05) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Johor Darul Takzim will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Chengdu Rongcheng (votes: 3 - 25%). Johor (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Liu Dianzuo (G) 2. Hu H. 19. Dong Y. 18. Han Pengfei 17. Wang Dongsheng 22. Li Y. 4. Delgado P. 49. Xu Hong 8. Chow T. (C) 58. Liao Rongxiang 39. Gan Chao	58. Zubiaurre A. (G) 5. Antonio Cristian 24. Arribas O. 28. Mendez N. 11. Jairo 33. Silva J. 23. Israfilov E. 36. Parra R. 4. Fazail A. (C) 47. Aketxe A. 42. Aiman A.
Substitutes
9. Felipe Silva 11. Gurfinkel Y. 1. Jian Tao (G) 5. Letschert T. 48. Li Moyu 25. Muzepper Murahmetjan 24. Tang Chuang 3. Tang Xin 15. Yan Dinghao 16. Yang Ming-Yang 28. Yang Shuai 26. Yuan Mincheng	1. Abad Amat C. (G) 9. Bergson 70. Castillejo S. 22. Corbin-Ong L. 21. Faiz N. 16. Hazmi S. (G) 88. Hidalgo M. 30. Insa N. 14. Lowry S. 13. Park J. 3. Saad S. 20. Teto A.
Coaches
Seo Jung-Won	Xisco

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Arribas O. ⚽, Jairo (A),
12', Dong Y. 🟨,
13', Jairo 🟨,
29', Hu H. ↓, Gurfinkel Y. ↑,
30', Silva J. 🟨,
45', Delgado P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Xu Hong ↓, Felipe Silva ↑,
46', Dong Y. ↓, Letschert T. ↑,
46', Israfilov E. ↓, Lowry S. ↑,
55', Chow T. 🟨,
59', Han Pengfei 🟨,
62', 0 - 2, Mendez N. ⚽, Silva J. (A),
63', Liao Rongxiang ↓, Yang Ming-Yang ↑,
71', Fazail A. ↓, Insa N. ↑,
82', Han Pengfei ↓, Tang Chuang ↑,
85', Aketxe A. ↓, Teto A. ↑,
85', Parra R. ↓, Saad S. ↑,
89', Jairo ↓, Bergson ↑,
89', Tang Chuang 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Chengdu Rongcheng have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Johor is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chengdu Rongcheng
Chinese Super League
17.10.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Meizhou Hakka	3:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Gangwon	1:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
26.09.25	Zhejiang Professional - Chengdu Rongcheng	3:3 ✺
21.09.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.09.25	Ulsan HD - Chengdu Rongcheng	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWTTL
- Johor Darul Takzim FC
Malaysian FA Cup
17.10.25	Penang - Johor Darul Takzim	1:2 ✺
Malaysian Super League
05.10.25	PDRM FA - Johor Darul Takzim	0:7 ✺
Malaysian FA Cup
02.10.25	Johor Darul Takzim - UM-Damansara United	5:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Johor Darul Takzim - Machida Zelvia	0:0 ✺
ASEAN Club Championship
25.09.25	Johor Darul Takzim - Bangkok United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWTW

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