Match Info

Ukrainian Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Chernihiv Stadium (Černihiv)


	Chernihiv		Kryvbas

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.15	1.58
	5.38	4.15	1.54	Watch
	7.5	5	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.88 ↓ (7.33)	4.43 ↓ (5.05)	1.47 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Chernihiv
15.8%

Draw
20.9%

Kryvbas
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.7%

18.4%

68.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.2%

17.6%

71.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernihiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Kryvbas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kryvbas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernihiv than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kryvbas than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kryvbas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chernihiv - Kryvbas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Chernihiv (3.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernihiv (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Tatarenko M. (C) 13. Bezgubchenko D. 20. Fateev D. 12. Kartushov Y. 10. Koydan V. 9. Kulyk D. 7. Myronenko D. 33. Porokhnya A. 6. Shalfeev Y. 3. Shumylo M. 38. Shushko P.	12. Kemkin O. (G) 27. Araujo A. 2. Jurcec J. 6. Konate B. 18. Lin B. 7. Mendoza G. 10. Mykytyshyn A. 3. Rojas C. 16. Thiago Borges 11. Tverdokhlib Y. 94. Zaderaka M.
Substitutes
8. Bybik A. . Chaban V. 99. Herasymenko D. (G) 11. Novikov A. 55. Romanchenko A. 14. Sakhno D. 88. Stolyarchuk A. 25. Volskyi D. 23. Zenchenko O.	5. Bekavac A. 26. Flores J. 17. Gonzalez M. 21. Kamensky O. 1. Khoma B. (G) 61. Kononikhin I. 30. Makhankov V. (G) 24. Mulyk V. 19. Ndombasi N. 9. Paraco C. 8. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych Y. 4. Vilivald V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Tverdokhlib Y. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Koydan V. (Pen),
Penalties (1 - 3)
1, Novikov A. (Pen),
1, Tverdokhlib Y. (Pen),
2, Bybik A. (Pen),
2, Shevchenko Volodymyrovych Y. (Pen),
3, Kartushov Y. (Pen),
3, Mendoza G. (Pen),
4, Sakhno D. (Pen),
4, Paraco C. (Pen),

Preview

In recent matches, Chernihiv has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kryvbas is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Chernihiv may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chernihiv has had a series of away games.

In this match, Kryvbas is the undeniable favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chernihiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
12.09.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Chernihiv	4:1 ✺
31.08.25	Feniks-Mariupol - Chernihiv	1:0 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
25.08.25	Atlet Kyiv - Chernihiv	0:1 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
17.08.25	Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk - Chernihiv	0:3 ✺
09.08.25	Chernihiv - Viktoriya Sumy	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLWWL
- FC Kryvbas
Ukrainian Premier League
14.09.25	Kryvbas - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Kryvbas - Obolon	2:1 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
24.08.25	Kulykiv-Bilka - Kryvbas	0:3 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
18.08.25	Zorya Luhansk - Kryvbas	2:3 ✺
09.08.25	Kryvbas - Kharkiv	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWWW

Upcoming Matches