Match Info

Parva liga - Round 3

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Location: Ticha (Varna)

Referee: Mitrev V. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1


	Cherno More Varna		Beroe Stara Zagora

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	7	Watch
	1.57	3.7	5.5
	1.52	3.7	5.7	Watch
	1.5	3.81	7.75
	1.50	3.90	6.74	Watch
	1.55	3.6	5.8
	1.58	3.88	5.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.63)	3.78 ↑ (3.69)	6.33 ↑ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cherno More Varna
60.7%

Draw
24.6%

Beroe Stara Zagora
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

25.3%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

24.7%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cherno More Varna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Beroe Stara Zagora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cherno More Varna than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beroe Stara Zagora than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	15.8%	5.3%

Cherno More Varna - Beroe Stara Zagora Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Cherno More (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Beroe (4.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 - Beroe (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cherno More Varna will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cherno More (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Beroe (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Tomov K. (G) 2. Panov T. 3. Atanasov Z. 28. Drobarov V. 15. Martin D. 71. Panayotov V. (C) 24. Teles D. 11. Joao Pedro 10. Chandarov A. 19. Lazarov G. 77. Sidney C.	1. Arthur (G) 25. Johny 3. Salomoni J. (C) 14. Valkov V. 23. Sonha T. 8. Masogo A. 19. Algarra C. 20. Colla G. 21. Salido Tajero A. 10. Nene 9. Godoy L.
Substitutes
8. Donchev A. 9. Gustavo Franca 33. Iliev P. (G) 22. Kostadinov N. 17. Milushev M. 20. Phellipe 4. Stefanov R. 99. Weslen Junior 39. Zlatev N.	24. Gavrilov S. 12. Georgiev M. 22. Georgiev M. 6. Mitev I. 99. Quintero V. (G) 18. Rusenov S. 16. Yovkov S.
Coaches
Iliev I.	Basadre V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Joao Pedro ⚽, Martin D. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', Atanasov Z. 🟨,
59', Masogo A. 🟨,
61', Drobarov V. 🟨,
68', Sidney C. ↓, Zlatev N. ↑,
68', Joao Pedro ↓, Milushev M. ↑,
74', Salido Tajero A. ↓, Gavrilov S. ↑,
74', Panov T. ↓, Donchev A. ↑,
74', Chandarov A. ↓, Weslen Junior ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Zlatev N. ⚽,
81', Colla G. ↓, Mitev I. ↑,
86', Lazarov G. ↓, Phellipe ↑,
89', Johny ↓, Georgiev M. ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Zlatev N. ⚽, Milushev M. (A),
90+6', 4 - 0, Zlatev N. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cherno More won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Cherno More may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cherno More is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cherno More won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cherno More won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Cherno More Varna - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.35%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cherno More Varna
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Cherno More Varna	4:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
27.07.25	Cherno More Varna - Botev Plovdiv	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Cherno More Varna - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
18.07.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - Cherno More Varna	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Cherno More Varna - Dobrudzha Dobrich	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLTW
- Beroe Stara Zagora
Bulgarian Parva Liga
26.07.25	Beroe Stara Zagora - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:1 ✺
21.07.25	Spartak Varna - Beroe Stara Zagora	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.25	Beroe Stara Zagora - Atletik Kuklen	1:0 ✺
11.07.25	Botev Plovdiv - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:2 ✺
03.07.25	Levski Sofia - Beroe Stara Zagora	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
18.04.25	Cherno More Varna - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:1
09.11.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Cherno More Varna	0:1
09.03.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Cherno More Varna	2:0
15.09.23	Cherno More Varna - Beroe Stara Zagora	2:0
18.02.23	Cherno More Varna - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:1
06.08.22	Beroe Stara Zagora - Cherno More Varna	0:2
26.11.21	Cherno More Varna - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:0

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