Match Info

efbet League - Round 4

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Ticha (Varna)

Referee: Mitrev V. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 9
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cherno More Varna		Ludogorets Razgrad

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.5	1.66	Watch
	4.33	3.60	1.70
	4.85	3.55	1.65
	4.97	3.74	1.75
	5.44	3.72	1.64	Watch
	4.7	3.7	1.71
	5.22	3.49	1.69	Watch
	4.8	3.5	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.95 ↑ (3.8)	3.6 ↑ (3.25)	1.68 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cherno More Varna
18.8%

Draw
25.8%

Ludogorets Razgrad
55.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

28.2%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

27.5%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cherno More Varna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cherno More Varna's form might have worsened.

Ludogorets Razgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ludogorets Razgrad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cherno More Varna than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ludogorets Razgrad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.5%	10%	87.5%

Cherno More Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ludogorets (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ludogorets Razgrad will win (35 of 40 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.25% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Tomov K. (G) 3. Atanasov Z. 5. Squadrone L. 26. Joao Bandaro 50. Tombak E. 71. Panayotov V. 24. Teles D. 11. Achi M. 13. Nyagolov E. 19. Lazarov G. 20. Kolev A.	39. Bonmann H. (G) 2. Andersson J. 3. Nedyalkov A. 15. Kurtulus E. 42. Shishkov S. 26. Kaloc F. 18. Chochev I. 7. Salido Tajero A. 14. Stanic P. 37. Tekpetey B. 12. Rwan Cruz
Substitutes
23. Banev M. 29. Beyhan B. 99. Bounaas I. 31. Hristov D. (G) 37. Kerchev V. 22. Kostadinov N. 9. Padilla J. 10. Sidney C. 14. Todorov A. 93. Ventsislavov G. 39. Zlatev N.	29. Bile E. 20. Camara A. 9. Duah K. 23. Duarte D. 40. Marinov A. 10. Nathan Otavio 1. Padt S. (G) 22. Polendakov M. 24. Verdon O. 27. Vinicius Nogueira 82. Yordanov I.
Coaches
Iliev I.	Reis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Nedyalkov A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Lazarov G. ⚽, Tombak E. (A),
34', Achi M. 🟨,
39', Kurtulus E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Salido Tajero A. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
46', Stanic P. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Rwan Cruz ⚽,
51', 1 - 2, Rwan Cruz ⚽,
53', 1 - 3, Chochev I. ⚽, Shishkov S. (A),
63', Atanasov Z. ↓, Zlatev N. ↑,
64', Panayotov V. ↓, Sidney C. ↑,
64', Lazarov G. ↓, Beyhan B. ↑,
65', Andersson J. ↓, Polendakov M. ↑,
68', Zlatev N. 🟨,
68', Nathan Fernandes 🟨,
74', Rwan Cruz ↓, Duah K. ↑,
77', Kolev A. ↓, Padilla J. ↑,
77', Achi M. ↓, Bounaas I. ↑,
82', Beyhan B. 🟨,
84', 2 - 3, Zlatev N. ⚽,
87', Tekpetey B. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cherno More won 1.

In recent matches, Cherno More has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ludogorets is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cherno More may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ludogorets is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cherno More won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:28. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Cherno More won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of Bulgarian Parva Liga for now

Ludogorets: 30.04% Cherno More: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	16:7	9	23
13	Cherno More	10	1	3	6	11:20	-9	6

Last Results with these Odds

Ludogorets Razgrad - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 47.77%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cherno More Varna
Bulgarian Parva Liga
01.08.26	Botev Plovdiv - Cherno More Varna	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Cherno More Varna - Spartak Varna	0:3 ✺
19.07.26	Botev Vratsa - Cherno More Varna	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Cherno More Varna - Dunav Ruse	1:1 ✺
24.06.26	Yantra Gabrovo - Cherno More Varna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLTTW
- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
02.08.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Botev Vratsa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Hapoel Tel Aviv	2:2 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
27.07.26	Dunav Ruse - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
18.07.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
09.04.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Cherno More Varna	0:0
02.11.25	Cherno More Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:0
13.05.25	Cherno More Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:0
27.04.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Cherno More Varna	2:0
22.02.25	Cherno More Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:1
01.09.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Cherno More Varna	0:0
19.05.24	Cherno More Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	4:0

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