Match Info

Date: 5 March 2021, Friday


	Chiasso		Aarau

	1	X	2
	3.1	4	2	Watch
	3	3.6	2	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2.1
	3.1	3.55	2.01
	3.3	3.89	2.06
	3.2	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.3	3.7	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (3.08)	3.69 ↓ (3.81)	2.05 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chiasso
29.6%

Draw
25.1%

Aarau
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

24.3%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

18.6%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chiasso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chiasso than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chiasso that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aarau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chiasso - Aarau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Chiasso could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Aarau will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 25 head-to-head matches Chiasso won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 36-44.

Including matches at home between the teams Chiasso won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 20-20.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chiasso
Swiss Challenge League
02.03.21	Neuchâtel Xamax - Chiasso	2:1 ✺
26.02.21	Chiasso - Wil 1900	1:0 ✺
20.02.21	Kriens - Chiasso	2:0 ✺
13.02.21	Chiasso - Schaffhausen	1:1 ✺
06.02.21	Grasshoppers - Chiasso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWLTT
- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
02.03.21	Aarau - Thun	4:2 ✺
26.02.21	Aarau - Winterthur	0:0 ✺
23.02.21	Aarau - Neuchâtel Xamax	4:0 ✺
19.02.21	Lausanne Ouchy - Aarau	1:1 ✺
16.02.21	Grasshoppers - Aarau	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
08.12.20	Chiasso - Aarau	0:2
03.10.20	Aarau - Chiasso	2:1
21.07.20	Aarau - Chiasso	2:2
26.06.20	Chiasso - Aarau	1:3
15.12.19	Aarau - Chiasso	3:3
08.08.19	Chiasso - Aarau	4:2
23.05.19	Chiasso - Aarau	0:1

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