Match Info

Asian Games - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City) 🌤️ ...


	China U23		Uzbekistan U23

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.60	1.57
	4.80	3.70	1.55
	5.00	3.80	1.52
	5.48	3.61	1.65
	5.8	3.93	1.55	Watch
	5.40	3.55	1.60
	5.21	3.75	1.64
	5.00	3.70	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.31)	3.71 ↓ (3.87)	1.58 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

China U23
17.5%

Draw
24.6%

Uzbekistan U23
57.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.5%

24%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

23.7%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

China U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Uzbekistan U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for China U23 than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Uzbekistan U23 than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

China U23 - Uzbekistan U23 Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Uzbekistan U23 will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uzbekistan U23 (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Li H. (G) Qingdao West Coast 17. He Yiran Chengdu Rongcheng 2. Hu H. Chengdu Rongcheng 11. Kuai Jiwen Shanghai Port 3. Liu Haofan Zhejiang Professional 10. Wang Y. Zhejiang Professional 15. Wu Xi (C) Shanghai Shenhua 6. Xu Bin Wolves 23. Yang X. 9. Zhang Yuning Beijing Guoan 5. Zhu Chenjie Shanghai Shenhua	21. Muratbaev S. (G) Nasaf Qarshi 17. Abdurakhmonov F. Din. Samarkand 7. Bakhromov S. Nasaf Qarshi 14. Fayzullaev R. Olimpik-Mobiuz 11. Jumaev A. Neftchi Fargona 19. Karimov O. Sogdiana 2. Khamidov S. Olimpik-Mobiuz 3. Murtazoyev D. Nasaf Qarshi 4. Rizakulov G. Qizilqum 13. Tulkinbekov A. Bunyodkor 10. Urinboev M. (C) Antwerp
Substitutes
19. Baihelamu A. 18. Chen Zeshi Shandong Taishan 8. Li X. Shanghai Port 14. Maimaiti Y. 22. Mao W. Dalian Yingbo 21. Peng Xiao Shandong Taishan 4. Shi Songchen Shandong Taishan 7. Xiang Yuwang Chongqing Tonglianglong 20. Yang Haoyu Shanghai Shenhua 12. Yao Haoyang (G) Chongqing Tonglianglong 13. Yimingkari M. Chengdu Rongcheng 1. Yu Jinyong (G) Shandong Taishan	20. Abdullaev D. Pakhtakor 15. Abdunazarov D. Nasaf Qarshi 22. Ibraimov N. Lok. Tashkent 6. Khayrullaev R. Buxoro 5. Khushvaktov K. Nasaf Qarshi 1. Murkaev M. (G) Pakhtakor 16. Reimov M. Lok. Tashkent 12. Rustamov U. (G) Olimpik-Mobiuz 9. Saidnurullaev S. Metallurg Bekabad 8. Saidov A. Sogdiana 23. Shodiboev S. Lok. Tashkent 18. Urmonjonov O. Din. Samarkand

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Hu H. ⚽, Kuai Jiwen (A),
17', He Yiran 🟨,
39', Bakhromov S. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Bakhromov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 2 - 1, Wang Y. ⚽,
63', Yimingkari M. 🟨,
63', Wang Y. ↓, Xiang Yuwang ↑,
63', Zhang Yuning ↓, Baihelamu A. ↑,
64', Abdurakhmonov F. ↓, Shodiboev S. ↑,
76', Karimov O. ↓, Reimov M. ↑,
76', Khamidov S. ↓, Ibraimov N. ↑,
88', Urinboev M. ↓, Urmonjonov O. ↑,
88', Xu Bin ↓, Peng Xiao ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Shodiboev S. ⚽,
90+7', Liu Haofan 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Reimov M. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Liu Haofan (Penalty Awarded),
2, Murtazoyev D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Zhu Chenjie (Penalty Awarded),
3, Shodiboev S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Xiang Yuwang (Penalty Awarded),
4, Urmonjonov O. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Maimaiti Y. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Bakhromov S. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Peng Xiao (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In recent outings, China U23 has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Uzbekistan U23 is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Uzbekistan U23 could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Uzbekistan U23 for this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, China U23 has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:3 (averaging 0.3:1 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- China U23
Asian Games Football
30.09.26	South Korea U23 - China U23	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	China U23 - Thailand U23	3:0 ✺
23.09.26	China U23 - United Arab Emirates U23	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Iran U23 - China U23	0:0 ✺
16.09.26	China U23 - North Korea U23	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWTTW
- Uzbekistan U23
Asian Games Football
30.09.26	Uzbekistan U23 - Japan U23	1:2 penalties ✺
25.09.26	Uzbekistan U23 - Saudi Arabia U23	3:0 ✺
22.09.26	Vietnam U23 - Uzbekistan U23	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Kuwait U23 - Uzbekistan U23	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Uzbekistan U23 - Philippines U23	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Asian Cup U23
17.01.26	Uzbekistan U23 - China U23	0:1 penalties
12.01.20	China U23 - Uzbekistan U23	0:2
12.01.18	Uzbekistan U23 - China U23	1:0

China U23 - Uzbekistan U23