Match Info

POLAND: DIVISION 1 - ROUND 32

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930 (Chojnice)

Referee: Sulikowski D. (Pol)


	Chojniczanka Chojnice		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.6	1.67
	4.2	3.7	1.68
	4	4	1.65
	4.25	4.35	1.71
	4.2	3.6	1.7
	4.25	3.92	1.71
	4.6	3.7	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.26 ↑ (3.49)	3.84 ↑ (3.25)	1.69 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chojniczanka Chojnice
21.6%

Draw
24%

Arka Gdynia
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

28.2%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

25.5%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chojniczanka Chojnice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arka Gdynia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chojniczanka Chojnice than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chojniczanka Chojnice, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	11.8%	70.6%

Chojniczanka Chojnice - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Chojniczanka will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Arka will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arka: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chojniczanka won 1.

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Arka is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Chojniczanka won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Chojniczanka won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chojniczanka Chojnice
Polish Division 1
14.05.23	Resovia Rzeszów - Chojniczanka Chojnice	3:1 ✺
05.05.23	Chojniczanka Chojnice - Sandecja Nowy Sącz	2:0 ✺
29.04.23	Wisła Kraków - Chojniczanka Chojnice	3:0 ✺
23.04.23	Chojniczanka Chojnice - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:0 ✺
16.04.23	Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała - Chojniczanka Chojnice	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLTL
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Division 1
13.05.23	Arka Gdynia - Ruch Chorzów	0:2 ✺
07.05.23	Stal Rzeszów - Arka Gdynia	2:1 ✺
30.04.23	Arka Gdynia - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1 ✺
21.04.23	Chrobry Głogów - Arka Gdynia	0:3 ✺
16.04.23	Arka Gdynia - Skra Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
18.01.23	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	1:3
10.12.22	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:2
Polish Division 1
22.10.22	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:1
Club Friendly
08.07.22	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	0:0
16.02.22	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:1
03.02.21	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	4:0
08.08.20	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	0:1

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