Match Info

National League North - Round 2

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Victory Park (Chorley)


	Chorley		Chester

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.55
	2.45	3.1	2.55
	2.52	3.15	2.62
	2.63	3.16	2.72
	1.59	3.52	6.21	Watch
	2.6	3	2.7
	2.54	3.15	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.67)	3.18 ↓ (3.25)	3.14 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
39.7%

Draw
30%

Chester
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

27.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chorley's performance.

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chester might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chorley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chester could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chorley - Chester Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chester (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chester (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Bainbridge J. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Calveley M. ⚽,
53', 2 - 0, Sampson J. ⚽,
60', 3 - 0, Sampson J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 1.

Chorley is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Chester has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chester may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chorley has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chorley won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
09.08.25	Darlington - Chorley	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.07.25	Chorley - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
11.07.25	Chorley - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
09.07.25	Chorley - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
05.07.25	Chorley - Wigan Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLTLL
- Chester City
English National League North
09.08.25	Chester - Peterborough Sports	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Chester - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Glentoran - Chester	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Chester - Salford City	0:3 ✺
15.07.25	Runcorn Linnets - Chester	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
08.03.25	Chorley - Chester	3:2
23.11.24	Chester - Chorley	2:1
23.01.24	Chorley - Chester	0:2
15.08.23	Chester - Chorley	0:0
07.04.23	Chester - Chorley	0:0
27.09.22	Chorley - Chester	2:2
05.03.22	Chester - Chorley	1:2

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