The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Spennymoor Town 34.7%
Draw 25.6%
Chorley 39.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.2%
27.1%
33.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.3%
28.5%
32%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spennymoor Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chorley's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spennymoor Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spennymoor Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-7.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chorley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
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Spennymoor Town - Chorley Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 24th in the Relegation and 13th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spennymoor won 2.
Spennymoor is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Chorley has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Chorley may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Spennymoor has faced a series of away games on the road.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Spennymoor has recorded 11 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:20 (averaging 0.9:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Spennymoor against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 11:5 goals (averaging 1.1:0.5 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Chorley
13
6
2
5
23:21
2
20
24
Spennymoor
13
1
4
8
12:27
-15
7
Last Results with these Odds
Spennymoor Town - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.2%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Chorley - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.72%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.
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