Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 19

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday


	Cimarrones de Sonora		Tritones Vallarta

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.45	6.3
	1.38	4.59	6.79	Watch
	1.36	4.2	7
	1.38	4.5	6.97
	1.28	4.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.48)	4.45 ↑ (4)	6.91 ↑ (5.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cimarrones de Sonora
66.9%

Draw
20.1%

Tritones Vallarta
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

22.5%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

22%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cimarrones de Sonora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cimarrones de Sonora's performance.

Tritones Vallarta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tritones Vallarta than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Cimarrones de Sonora - Tritones Vallarta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs: ) and 6)

Cimarrones de Sonora is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tritones Vallarta's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Cimarrones de Sonora is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cimarrones de Sonora won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 2:0).

Including home match between the teams, Cimarrones de Sonora won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
06.02.26	Tecos FC - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Guerreros de Autlán	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:3 penalties ✺
20.01.26	Tuzos UAZ - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:4 ✺
09.01.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Ensenada	8:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWWW
- Tritones Vallarta MFC
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.02.26	Tritones Vallarta - Ensenada	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Zapotlanejo - Tritones Vallarta	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tritones Vallarta	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	La Piedad - Tritones Vallarta	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Tritones Vallarta - Colima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
27.09.25	Tritones Vallarta - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:3
15.02.25	Tritones Vallarta - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:0
11.10.24	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tritones Vallarta	3:0

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