Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Reserves - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday


	Mineros de Fresnillo		Cimarrones de Sonora

	1	X	2
	3.21	3.45	2.07
	3.37	3.33	2.04	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.05
	3.41	3.22	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↓ (3.75)	3.31 ↓ (3.75)	2.04 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mineros de Fresnillo
27.9%

Draw
27.5%

Cimarrones de Sonora
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

50.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mineros de Fresnillo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Cimarrones de Sonora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cimarrones de Sonora might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mineros de Fresnillo than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cimarrones de Sonora could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

First leg.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Cimarrones de Sonora is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Fresnillo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mineros de Fresnillo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mineros de Fresnillo
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
28.03.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - La Piedad	6:2 ✺
21.03.26	Colima - Mineros de Fresnillo	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Los Cabos United - Mineros de Fresnillo	3:2 ✺
28.02.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tigres de Álica	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWLW
- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
27.03.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	La Piedad - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:3 ✺
13.03.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Colima	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Leones Negros 2 - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
27.02.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Los Cabos United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
24.01.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:3 penalties
05.09.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Mineros de Fresnillo	1:0
21.03.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Mineros de Fresnillo	3:0
09.11.24	Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:3

Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide