Match Info

MLS

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Referee: Chapman A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC


	Cincinnati		Sporting Kansas City

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.63	3.9	5
	1.57	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.56	4.51	5.7
	1.57	4.39	5.42	Watch
	1.62	4	4.8
	1.56	4.63	5.2	Watch
	1.57	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.77)	4.37 ↑ (3.59)	5.33 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
60.3%

Draw
21.8%

Sporting Kansas City
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

26.6%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

26.1%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cincinnati's performance.

Sporting Kansas City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cincinnati that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Kansas City than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Cincinnati - Sporting Kansas City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Kansas City will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Cincinnati (1.73) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 1 - 50%). Kansas City (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Celentano R. (G) 91. Yedlin D. 21. Miazga M. (C) 12. Robinson M. 4. Hagglund N. 29. Engel L. 20. Bucha P. 27. Anunga T. 10. Evander 23. Orellano L. 9. Denkey K.	1. Pulskamp J. (G) 11. Shelton K. 15. Miller J. 4. Voloder R. 18. Ndenbe L. 21. Garcia M. 6. Radoja N. 16. Bartlett J. 93. Suleymanov S. 9. Joveljic D. 10. Salloi D. (C)
Substitutes
11. Baird C. 19. Chirila S. 3. Flores G. 13. Louro E. (G) 5. Nwobodo O. 2. Powell A. 17. Sergio Santos 14. Smith B. 22. Valenzuela G.	30. Afrifa S. 22. Bassong Z. 3. Brody A. 2. James I. 14. Leibold T. 8. Rodriguez M. 36. Schewe R. (G) 26. Thommy E. 13. Toye M.
Coaches
Noonan P.	Zavagnin K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Anunga T. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Denkey K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Anunga T. ↓, Nwobodo O. ↑,
63', Miazga M. ↓, Sergio Santos ↑,
66', Joveljic D. 🟨,
66', Radoja N. ↓, Bassong Z. ↑,
73', Salloi D. ↓, Thommy E. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Denkey K. ⚽, Orellano L. (A),
79', Denkey K. 🟨,
85', Orellano L. ↓, Powell A. ↑,
86', Engel L. ↓, Smith B. ↑,
86', Shelton K. ↓, Brody A. ↑,
86', Suleymanov S. ↓, Afrifa S. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Bassong Z. ⚽, Thommy E. (A),
90+1', Denkey K. ↓, Baird C. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

Cincinnati in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Kansas City is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Cincinnati is a favorite.

There will not play in Cincinnati: Hadebe T. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Kansas City: Davis J. (Hamstring Injury) Rosero D. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Cincinnati: Kann A. (Hip Injury) Nwobodo O. (Hamstring Injury)

Our prediction for today's Cincinnati to win the game is with odds 1.69.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Cincinnati won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.7:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Cincinnati won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.7:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Cincinnati - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 53.96%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
19.04.25	Chicago Fire - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
12.04.25	DC United - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Cincinnati - New England Revolution	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Nashville SC - Cincinnati	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Cincinnati - Atlanta United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWT
- Sporting Kansas City
MLS
19.04.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Sporting Kansas City	3:5 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Kansas City - Portland Timbers	2:4 ✺
05.04.25	Sporting Kansas City - St. Louis City	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	FC Dallas - Sporting Kansas City	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Sporting Kansas City - Los Angeles	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF League Cup
23.07.23	Cincinnati - Sporting Kansas City	4:3 penalties
MLS
28.10.20	Cincinnati - Sporting Kansas City	0:1
07.04.19	Cincinnati - Sporting Kansas City	1:1

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