Match Info

MLS

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Referee: Boiko S. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Cincinnati		Philadelphia Union

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.75	2.32	Watch
	2.55	3.6	2.45
	2.72	3.7	2.42
	2.75	3.85	2.45
	2.72	3.59	2.39	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.45
	2.7	3.8	2.45	Watch
	1.83	4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (1.83)	3.72 ↓ (4.13)	2.57 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
37.3%

Draw
25.6%

Philadelphia Union
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

22.8%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

23.2%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.

Philadelphia Union has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Philadelphia Union's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Philadelphia Union, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cincinnati (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Cincinnati (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Celentano R. (G) 29. Engel L. 21. Miazga M. (C) 4. Hagglund N. 15. Marczuk D. 27. Anunga T. 10. Evander 20. Bucha P. 66. Echenique E. 8. Brenner 9. Denkey K.	76. Rick A. (G) 26. Harriel N. 5. Glesnes J. (C) 29. Makhanya O. 27. Wagner K. 33. Sullivan Q. 4. Lukic J. 21. Jean Jacques D. 32. Iloski M. 9. Baribo T. 20. Damiani B.
Substitutes
3. Flores G. 16. Hadebe T. 26. Jabbari A. 37. Jimenez S. 85. Kamara K. 13. Louro E. (G) 23. Orellano L. 2. Powell A. 22. Valenzuela G.	11. Bedoya A. 8. Bueno J. 31. Marks G. (G) 15. Mbaizo O. 14. Rafanello J. 6. Sullivan C. 7. Uhre M. 19. Vassilev I. 39. Westfield F.
Coaches
Noonan P.	Carnell B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Marczuk D. 🟨,
22', Makhanya O. 🟨,
45+4', Glesnes J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Damiani B. ⚽,
51', Harriel N. 🟨,
61', Makhanya O. 🟨,
63', Sullivan Q. ↓, Westfield F. ↑,
63', Baribo T. ↓, Vassilev I. ↑,
64', Marczuk D. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
64', Anunga T. ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
74', Damiani B. ↓, Uhre M. ↑,
74', Echenique E. ↓, Jabbari A. ↑,
84', Iloski M. ↓, Rafanello J. ↑,
85', Westfield F. 🟨,
89', Engel L. ↓, Kamara K. ↑,
90+1', Denkey K. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.

Recent form of Cincinnati has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Philadelphia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Cincinnati: Nwobodo O. (Thigh Injury) Orellano L. (Muscle Injury) Robinson M. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Philadelphia: Bender B. (Calf Injury) Blake A. (Injury) Glavinovich I. (Knee Injury) Vassilev I. (Concussion)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
23.08.25	Cincinnati - New York City	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Portland Timbers - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
10.08.25	Cincinnati - Charlotte	0:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	Cincinnati - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Cincinnati - Juárez	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLLL
- Philadelphia Union
MLS
23.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	New York Red Bulls - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
13.08.25	Philadelphia Union - New York Red Bulls	3:2 ✺
MLS
09.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
01.03.25	Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati	4:1
19.10.24	Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati	1:2
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.24	Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union	2:4
MLS
19.06.24	Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union	4:3
25.11.23	Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union	1:0
16.09.23	Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati	2:2
08.04.23	Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union	1:0

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