Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 31

Date: 27 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Tres de Febrero (Jose Ingenieros)

Referee: Carranza A. (Arg)


	Club Almagro		Guillermo Brown

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	5.25
	1.75	3.25	5.1
	1.83	3.13	5.48
	1.91	3.1	3.8
	1.87	3.14	4.9
	1.78	3.2	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.21)	3.19 ↑ (2.83)	4.89 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club Almagro
51.5%

Draw
29.3%

Guillermo Brown
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

32.5%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

31.1%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club Almagro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Club Almagro's performance.

Guillermo Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guillermo Brown might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Club Almagro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guillermo Brown than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guillermo Brown could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Club Almagro - Guillermo Brown Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Almagro will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almagro: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Aracena C. (G) 4. Ferreyra L. (C) 2. Guzman M. 6. Achucarro D. 3. Silvera F. 8. Blanc G. 5. Sole F. 7. Schonfeld A. 10. Cuello A. 9. Alderete E. 11. Fernandez E.	1. Ramirez R. (G) 4. Gonzalez R. 2. Olivera W. 6. Tecilla N. 3. Mazzaco J. 8. Werro V. 5. Romero E. 10. Gonzalez A. 7. Assennato T. 9. Pino M. 11. Fernandez M.
Substitutes
14. Ayala A. 19. Conechny R. 13. Falabella L. 20. Galeano M. 16. Jaque G. 17. Maidana A. 18. Perez P. 15. Sivetti F. 12. Vaccaneo M. (G)	18. Baez B. 13. Fleita J. 17. Garcia E. 12. Garcia R. (G) 14. Navarro G. 19. Rodriguez J. 15. Valor M. 16. Velazquez F. (G) 20. Viera Gaston
Coaches
Ruiz F.	Lemos L.

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almagro won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Guillermo Brown could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Almagro is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Almagro won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Almagro won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.08.23	Agropecuario Argentino - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
05.08.23	Club Almagro - San Telmo	2:0 ✺
29.07.23	Temperley - Club Almagro	3:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.07.23	Excursionistas - Club Almagro	1:4 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.07.23	Club Almagro - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWLWT
- Guillermo Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.08.23	Guillermo Brown - San Telmo	1:1 ✺
15.08.23	Temperley - Guillermo Brown	0:0 ✺
06.08.23	Guillermo Brown - San Martín de Tucumán	3:0 ✺
29.07.23	Nueva Chicago - Guillermo Brown	3:2 ✺
22.07.23	Guillermo Brown - All Boys	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.04.23	Guillermo Brown - Club Almagro	1:1
10.04.22	Guillermo Brown - Club Almagro	0:1
04.09.21	Guillermo Brown - Club Almagro	1:0
24.04.21	Club Almagro - Guillermo Brown	2:2
05.11.18	Club Almagro - Guillermo Brown	1:1
30.04.18	Guillermo Brown - Club Almagro	0:0
16.07.17	Guillermo Brown - Club Almagro	1:0

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