Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 27 July 2023, Thursday

Location: Jan Breydel Stadion (Brugge)

Referee: Kikacheishvili G. (Geo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Club Brugge		AGF Aarhus

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.1
	1.75	3.6	4.5
	1.78	3.6	4.5
	1.79	3.54	4.65
	1.73	3.78	4.6	Watch
	1.75	4	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.41)	3.69 ↓ (4.63)	4.42 ↓ (6.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club Brugge
53.4%

Draw
25.4%

AGF Aarhus
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

20.2%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

19.6%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club Brugge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Club Brugge's form might have worsened.

AGF Aarhus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AGF Aarhus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club Brugge than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club Brugge, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AGF Aarhus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Club Brugge - AGF Aarhus Predictions

Users Predictions: Club Brugge will win (33 of 39 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.3% – 95.94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mignolet S. (G) 58. Spileers J. 44. Mechele B. 55. De Cuyper M. 17. Buchanan T. 26. Rits M. 15. Onyedika R. 20. Vanaken H. (C) 32. Nusa A. 7. Skov Olsen A. 99. Igor Thiago	1. Hansen J. (G) 14. Molgaard T. 5. Tingager F. 23. Kristensen T. 2. Beijmo F. 6. Poulsen N. 7. Madsen M. 11. Links G. 31. Bech T. 9. Mortensen P. (C) 15. Knudsen M.
Substitutes
62. Homma S. 14. Meijer B. 27. Nielsen C. 6. Odoi D. 4. Ordonez J. 64. Sabbe K. 33. Shinton N. (G) 8. Skoras M. 76. Vermant R. 10. Vetlesen H.	27. Akoto M. 26. Andersen J. 8. Anderson M. 21. Bjur P. 29. Brandhof F. 28. Daghim A. 20. Duelund M. 24. Duncan Z. 32. Hutters J. (G) 19. Kahl E. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 13. Serra J.
Coaches
Deila R.	Rosler U.

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Brugge is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aarhus is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Brugge is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Brugge
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Club Brugge - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
15.07.23	Go Ahead Eagles - Club Brugge	1:2 ✺
12.07.23	Feyenoord - Club Brugge	2:0 ✺
08.07.23	Club Brugge - Beerschot Wilrijk	3:0 ✺
01.07.23	Club Brugge - Zulte Waregem	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWL
- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
23.07.23	AGF Aarhus - Vejle Boldklub Kolding	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.23	AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland	2:0 ✺
12.07.23	AGF Aarhus - Viborg	0:0 ✺
01.07.23	Fredericia - AGF Aarhus	0:2 ✺
28.06.23	SC Weiche-08 - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTWT

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