Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)

Referee: Lopez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Cobresal		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.8	1.53	Watch
	6.25	4	1.52
	5.95	4.15	1.52	Watch
	6.86	4.01	1.54
	6.86	4.02	1.54
	6.5	3.9	1.44	Watch
	6.2	4.15	1.54	Watch
	5.8	4.1	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.37 ↑ (4.45)	4.02 ↑ (3.71)	1.52 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cobresal
14.8%

Draw
23.4%

São Paulo
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

25.2%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

27.7%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cobresal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cobresal's form might have worsened.

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Paulo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cobresal than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	6.2%	81.2%

Cobresal - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Requena L. (C) 36. Buss J. 3. Toro C. 4. Bechtholdt F. 26. Sandoval R. 13. Mesias C. 28. Cespedes D. 8. Navarro L. 14. Garcia F. 9. Coelho D. 10. Valencia Rossel L.	23. Rafael (G) 2. Igor Vinicius 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 36. Patryck 25. Alisson 21. Bobadilla D. 47. Ferreirinha 10. Luciano 15. Michel Araujo 9. Jonathan Calleri
Substitutes
5. Alarcon F. 6. Barrientos F. 19. Carrasco S. 16. Castro Gutierrez J. 1. Cerda Fernandez J. A. 7. Jorquera M. 11. Lezcano G. 17. Lobos F. 18. Munder C. 23. Pacheco G. 2. Pacheco I. 12. Santander A. (G)	17. Andre Silva 4. Diego Costa 33. Erick 32. Ferraresi N. 8. Giuliano Galoppo 93. Jandrei (G) 30. Joao Moreira 31. Juan Santos 16. Luiz Gustavo 11. Rodrigo Nestor 18. Rodriguinho 35. Sabino
Coaches
Huerta G.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Coelho D. ⚽, Mesias C. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Luciano ⚽, Michel Araujo (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sandoval R. ↓, Jorquera M. ↑,
46', Buss J. ↓, Pacheco G. ↑,
58', Michel Araujo ↓, Rodrigo Nestor ↑,
58', Ferreirinha ↓, Erick ↑,
58', Bobadilla D. ↓, Giuliano Galoppo ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Rodrigo Nestor ⚽, Giuliano Galoppo (A),
72', Pacheco G. 🟨,
73', Garcia F. ↓, Lobos F. ↑,
73', Valencia Rossel L. ↓, Lezcano G. ↑,
73', Coelho D. ↓, Castro Gutierrez J. ↑,
78', 1 - 3, Jonathan Calleri ⚽,
82', Luciano ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
88', Lobos F. 🟨,
88', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Cobresal is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

São Paulo is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cobresal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Cobresal have a series of home games.

Recently São Paulo have a series of guest games.

In this match São Paulo is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Cobresal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Cobresal
Chilean Primera Division
04.05.24	Cobresal - Colo-Colo	2:2 ✺
29.04.24	Audax Italiano - Cobresal	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Cobresal - Talleres de Córdoba	0:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
20.04.24	Cobresal - Ñublense	2:2 ✺
15.04.24	Cobresal - Deportes Copiapó	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWLTW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Vitória Salvador - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.05.24	Águia de Marabá - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.24	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Atlético Goianiense - São Paulo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	São Paulo - Cobresal	2:0

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