Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico do Para (Belem)

Referee: Gomes A. (Bra)


	Águia de Marabá		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	7.5	3.8	1.5
	6	3.75	1.47
	7	4	1.47
	5.6	3.88	1.53
	6.67	4.09	1.46
	6.5	3.9	1.44
	7.09	4.1	1.47
	6.8	3.9	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.65 ↑ (6.52)	3.93 ↓ (4.35)	1.48 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Águia de Marabá
13.9%

Draw
23.5%

São Paulo
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.2%

21.2%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

20.3%

62%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Águia de Marabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águia de Marabá than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Águia de Marabá - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Águia de Marabá will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). São Paulo will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernardes Lopes A. (G) 2. Bruno Limao 3. Cruz D. 4. Caique Baiano 13. Betao (C) 6. Wender 5. Dinde 10. Hitalo J. 8. Patrick 23. Wander 20. Braga	93. Jandrei (G) 30. Joao Moreira 4. Diego Costa 32. Ferraresi N. 15. Michel Araujo 8. Giuliano Galoppo 16. Luiz Gustavo 36. Patryck 11. Rodrigo Nestor 33. Erick 31. Juan Santos
Substitutes
11. Alan Maia 16. Daelson 21. Fabiano 18. Joao Guilherme 19. Kaique 25. Mariano 14. Mendes da Silva J. P. 15. Rodrigues S. F. 17. Soares 22. Victor Lube (G)	17. Andre Silva 21. Bobadilla D. 47. Ferreirinha 28. Franco A. 37. Henrique Carmo 41. Ly I. 23. Rafael (G) 18. Rodriguinho 35. Sabino 39. William Gomes 50. Young (G)
Coaches
Mathaus Sodre	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
25', Caique Baiano 🟨,
28', Braga 🟨,
31', Wander 🟥,
35', Rodrigo Nestor 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Wender ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Juan Santos ⚽, Giuliano Galoppo (A),
40', Wender 🟨,
41', 1 - 2, Juan Santos ⚽, Erick (A),
45+5', Giuliano Galoppo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Betao 🟨,
64', 1 - 3, Luiz Gustavo ⚽,
65', Patrick ↓, Mariano ↑,
66', Michel Araujo ↓, Ferreirinha ↑,
66', Rodrigo Nestor ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
66', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
71', Diego Costa ↓, Sabino ↑,
75', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
77', Erick ↓, William Gomes ↑,
83', Hitalo J. ↓, Daelson ↑,
83', Cruz D. ↓, Mendes da Silva J. P. ↑,
89', Dinde ↓, Kaique ↑,
89', Braga ↓, Alan Maia ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Águia de Marabá is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches São Paulo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

São Paulo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match São Paulo is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Águia de Marabá
Brazilian Serie D
27.04.24	Ríver PI - Águia de Marabá	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Grao Para
05.04.24	Águia de Marabá - São Francisco	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
30.03.24	Paysandu - Águia de Marabá	4:0 ✺
27.03.24	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
17.03.24	Caeté - Águia de Marabá	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLTW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.24	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Atlético Goianiense - São Paulo	0:3 ✺
17.04.24	Flamengo - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWWLL

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