Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Barcelona Guayaquil		São Paulo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.3
	3.2	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.28	3.16	2.4
	3.28	3.16	2.39
	3.1	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.24	3.22	2.32	Watch
	3.2	3.15	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (3.1)	3.2 ↓ (3.39)	2.29 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
29.4%

Draw
29.4%

São Paulo
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

27.6%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

26%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Barcelona Guayaquil - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burrai J. (G) 27. Vargas W. 32. Ramirez N. 3. Sosa L. 6. Chala A. 5. Jesus Trindade 17. Gaibor F. 30. Oyola B. 10. Diaz D. (C) 11. Rojas J. 9. Obando A.	23. Rafael (G) 2. Igor Vinicius 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 6. Welington 25. Alisson 29. Pablo Maia 47. Ferreirinha 10. Luciano 17. Andre Silva 9. Jonathan Calleri
Substitutes
23. Arroyo D. 13. Corozo J. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 2. Mario Pineida 12. Mendoza V. (G) 20. Pinatares B. 7. Preciado A. 14. Rangel A. 16. Reasco D. 4. Rodriguez C. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 19. Suarez M.	21. Bobadilla D. 4. Diego Costa 33. Erick 32. Ferraresi N. 8. Giuliano Galoppo 93. Jandrei (G) 31. Juan Santos 15. Michel Araujo 36. Patryck 11. Rodrigo Nestor 35. Sabino 39. William Gomes
Coaches
Lopez D.	Cruz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Ferreirinha (A),
45+1', Vargas W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Ferreirinha ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
59', Obando A. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
60', Rojas J. ↓, Reasco D. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Alisson ⚽,
70', Diaz D. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
70', Gaibor F. ↓, Souza de Almeida L. ↑,
78', Andre Silva ↓, Diego Costa ↑,
78', Luciano ↓, Giuliano Galoppo ↑,
85', Oyola B. ↓, Corozo J. ↑,
87', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Juan Santos ↑,
87', Igor Vinicius ↓, Rodrigo Nestor ↑,

Preview

Barcelona is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches São Paulo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barcelona could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

São Paulo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Talleres de Córdoba	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Deportivo Cuenca	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.24	Cobresal - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWTWT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Atlético Goianiense - São Paulo	0:3 ✺
17.04.24	Flamengo - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	São Paulo - Cobresal	2:0 ✺
04.04.24	Talleres de Córdoba - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLWL

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