Match Info

Copa Paulista - Round 7

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday


	Comercial SP		Itapirense

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.25
	1.98	3.1	3.5
	1.91	3.12	3.6
	1.95	3.54	3.45	Watch
	1.96	3.18	3.65
	2.2	3.2	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.2)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comercial SP
45.1%

Draw
28.5%

Itapirense
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.3%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.9%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Itapirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itapirense than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Comercial SP - Itapirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 3 - 1, ⚽,
76', 4 - 1, ⚽,
80', 4 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Comercial SP has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Itapirense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Comercial SP could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Comercial SP won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Comercial SP won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Copa Paulista
19.07.25	Francana - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Comercial SP - União São João	0:1 ✺
08.07.25	Internacional de Limeira - Comercial SP	2:2 ✺
02.07.25	Comercial SP - Botafogo SP B	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Itapirense - Comercial SP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLTWW
- SE Itapirense
Brazilian Copa Paulista
19.07.25	Itapirense - União São João	2:3 ✺
16.07.25	Itapirense - Internacional de Limeira	2:4 ✺
09.07.25	Botafogo SP B - Itapirense	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Francana - Itapirense	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	Itapirense - Comercial SP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
21.06.25	Itapirense - Comercial SP	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
15.02.25	Comercial SP - Itapirense	1:2

Comercial SP - Itapirense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide