Match Info

Sergipano - Play Offs - Final

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao) (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Confiança		Sergipe

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.95	3.7
	2.22	2.92	3.1
	5.62	1.41	5.04	Watch
	2.1	2.75	3.6
	2.34	3.13	2.99
	1.78	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (1.76)	2.78 ↓ (3.4)	3.74 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
37.4%

Draw
35.9%

Sergipe
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

26.2%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

25.3%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Confiança's form might have worsened.

Sergipe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+15.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Confiança, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Confiança - Sergipe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 11. Andrey Quintino 7. Danielzinho 4. Eduardo Moura 8. Guilherme Nunes 3. Icaro (C) 10. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 6. Marcelo 2. Valdir Junior 9. Wendel	1. Filipe Santos (G) 11. Andrey 3. Carioca 10. Juliano Fabro 7. Lucas Mineiro 5. Matheus Neris (C) 8. Paulo Henrique 2. Rafael Luiz 4. Victor Massaia 6. Wilker V. 9. Ze Artur
Substitutes
14. Adryan 15. Bruno Silva 16. Cunha L. 18. Fabricio 17. Gustavo Nicola 21. Iago 19. Maikon Aquino 23. Mateus Ludke 12. Matheus Silva (G) 20. Renan 13. Renilson 22. Weriton	23. Betinho 15. Biro Biro 16. Dutra 20. Felipe Valdivia 18. Guara E. 21. Joao Varolo 19. Marlon Martins 12. Naldo (G) 13. Neto Sergipano 14. Rodrigo Rosa 17. Thierry 25. Venicius

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Carioca 🟨,
25', Icaro 🟨,
25', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 0, Valdir Junior ⚽,
52', 1 - 1, Ze Artur ⚽,
55', Filipe Santos 🟨,
61', Lorran ↓, Renilson ↑,
61', Andrey Quintino ↓, Iago ↑,
64', Icaro ↓, Lucas Cunha ↑,
64', Kelvyn ↓, Fabricio ↑,
73', Ze Artur ↓, Venicius ↑,
82', Juliano Fabro ↓, Felipe Valdivia ↑,
87', Danielzinho ↓, Weriton ↑,

Preview

First leg.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Confiança may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Confiança will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 1.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 penalties ✺
14.02.26	Confiança - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
11.02.26	Dorense - Confiança	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWTW
- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
01.03.26	Sergipe - América de Propriá	2:1 penalties ✺
26.02.26	América de Propriá - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Lagarto - Sergipe	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Sergipe - Atlético Gloriense	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Sergipe - Dorense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
31.01.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0
09.02.25	Confiança - Sergipe	2:1
13.04.24	Confiança - Sergipe	1:0 penalties
10.04.24	Sergipe - Confiança	1:1
04.02.24	Sergipe - Confiança	2:1
12.02.23	Confiança - Sergipe	1:0
12.03.22	Confiança - Sergipe	1:1

Confiança - Sergipe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide