Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		Oliveira Hospital

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.25
	2.16	3.34	3.48
	2.14	3.26	3.45	Watch
	2.06	3.22	3.31
	2.05	3.3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.22)	3.28 ↑ (3.13)	3.35 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
44.2%

Draw
28.2%

Oliveira Hospital
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.4%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.2%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Oliveira Hospital has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveira Hospital than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Covilhã - Oliveira Hospital Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Joao Goncalo (G) 44. David Santos 19. Duarte L. 17. Filipe L. 27. Fuller T. 55. Garcia F. 28. Konate M. 32. Mica 70. Peixoto R. 77. Ramalho D. (C) 5. Ze Simao	23. Andre Paulo (G) 12. Fajardo R. 16. Geovanny 9. Gracio D. 19. Michel 28. Nascimento D. (C) 38. Oliveira M. 17. Pinheiro L. 3. Simao A. 7. Varela A. 30. Vinhas D.
Substitutes
42. Claxton N. 16. Cornelio D. 6. Maio F. 53. Oliveira P. R. (G) 9. Paulinho 8. Pecile D. 89. Piteira 23. Rafa 10. Salgado L. M.	66. Carreira R. 8. David Bras 71. Fernandes L. (G) 46. Io S. 44. Pablo Veloso 76. Santos J. 55. Silva T. 18. Souza E. 21. Urco

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Gracio D. ⚽, Michel (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Simao A. ↓, Pablo Veloso ↑,
46', Fuller T. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
58', Paulinho 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Duarte L. ⚽,
62', Duarte L. 🟨,
66', Gracio D. ↓, Souza E. ↑,
71', Mica ↓, Cornelio D. ↑,
71', Filipe L. ↓, Pecile D. ↑,
77', Oliveira M. 🟨,
77', Garcia F. ↓, Maio F. ↑,
77', Varela A. ↓, Urco ↑,
78', Oliveira M. ↓, David Bras ↑,
83', 🟨,
87', 🟨,
89', Ramalho D. ↓, Rafa ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Covilhã is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Oliveira Hospital is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Covilhã could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Covilhã will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:4 (average 2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:2 (average 2.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.25	Caldas - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Covilhã - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
19.01.25	Oliveira Hospital - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
15.01.25	Covilhã - SC Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Covilhã - Atlético CP	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWTL
- Oliveira Hospital
Portuguese Liga 3
16.02.25	Oliveira Hospital - SC Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético CP - Oliveira Hospital	2:0 ✺
22.01.25	SC Lusitânia - Oliveira Hospital	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Oliveira Hospital - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
05.01.25	Oliveira Hospital - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
19.01.25	Oliveira Hospital - Covilhã	0:1
05.10.24	Covilhã - Oliveira Hospital	1:0
13.01.24	Oliveira Hospital - Covilhã	2:1
01.10.23	Covilhã - Oliveira Hospital	3:2
Club Friendly
10.07.19	Covilhã - Oliveira Hospital	4:0

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