Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 8

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		SC Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	1.59	3.75	4.9
	1.57	4.05	5.8
	1.59	3.92	5.48	Watch
	1.63	3.98	4.85	Watch
	1.59	3.75	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.86)	3.89 ↑ (3.23)	5.19 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
58.2%

Draw
23.9%

SC Lusitânia
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

28.2%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28.1%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Covilhã's performance.

SC Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Covilhã that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SC Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Covilhã - SC Lusitânia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - SC Lusitânia (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. SC Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Joao Goncalo (G) 70. Peixoto R. 42. Claxton N. 44. David Santos 55. Garcia F. 28. Konate M. 16. Cornelio D. 77. Ramalho D. (C) 17. Filipe L. 19. Duarte L. 91. Paula G.	72. Sa D. (G) 70. Mosquera D. 2. Derick 24. Edu 15. Breno T. 6. Serginho 42. Biai B. (C) 41. Dario Miranda 11. Joca 23. Jefinho 77. Sidney C.
Substitutes
27. Fuller T. 6. Maio F. 53. Oliveira P. R. (G) 9. Paulinho 89. Piteira 23. Rafa 10. Salgado L. M. 4. Tiago Caveira 5. Ze Simao	51. Almeida A. 52. Djebate I. 50. Drame Y. 32. Gunjo J. 17. Isabelinha 53. Isma 5. Kaylan 30. Kipanda D. 1. Monteiro J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Joca 🟨,
40', Filipe L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Dario Miranda ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
58', Biai B. ↓, Kaylan ↑,
63', Cornelio D. ↓, Salgado L. M. ↑,
64', Paula G. ↓, Fuller T. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Joca ⚽,
69', Ramalho D. 🟨,
70', Derick 🟨,
75', Filipe L. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
77', Mosquera D. 🟨,
79', Jefinho ↓, Isabelinha ↑,
83', Joca ↓, Isma ↑,
84', Sidney C. ↓, Kipanda D. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Duarte L. ⚽,
90', Konate M. 🟥,
90+1', 1 - 2, Derick ⚽,

Preview

Covilhã is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches SC Lusitânia is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently SC Lusitânia have a series of home games.

In this match Covilhã is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:3 (average 0:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
06.04.25	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	União de Santarém - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Covilhã - União de Santarém	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLLL
- SC Lusitânia
Portuguese Liga 3
06.04.25	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Académica Coimbra - SC Lusitânia	4:2 ✺
22.03.25	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:0
15.01.25	Covilhã - SC Lusitânia	0:0
15.09.24	SC Lusitânia - Covilhã	1:0

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