Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 14

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.3	1.85
	4.55	3.69	1.74
	4.02	3.51	1.87	Watch
	3.9	3.1	1.85
	4.14	3.25	1.81
	4	3.25	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↓ (4.45)	3.35 ↓ (3.36)	1.82 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
22.5%

Draw
27.3%

Belenenses
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

27.3%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

26.6%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Covilhã - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Belenenses (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. 3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 20. Ferreira R. 96. Jailson 10. Mica (C) 99. Niang C. 27. Pimenta T. 77. Silva M. 5. Tiago Caveira	99. Oliveira G. (G) 14. Afonso A. 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 13. Cuca (C) 31. David Rebelo 7. Eduardo W. 17. Horta Leitao D. 4. Nuno Tomas 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A.
Substitutes
14. Brito P. 8. Coelho R. 19. Cruz F. 55. Garcia F. 22. Gomes Silva E. 74. Igreja T. (G) 79. Liberal A. 24. Loureiro G. 13. Ribeiro P.	3. Amaral A. 11. Duda 15. Lucas J. 2. Machado J. 9. Paredes J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 16. Souza E. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Eduardo W. ⚽, David Rebelo (A),
14', 0 - 2, Eduardo W. ⚽,
28', Cuca 🟨,
34', Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ferreira R. ↓, Brito P. ↑,
46', Jailson ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
53', Nuno Tomas 🟨,
59', 🟨,
63', Horta Leitao D. 🟨,
65', Niang C. 🟨,
67', Cuca ↓, Lucas J. ↑,
68', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
75', 0 - 3, Pinto Galil L. G. (Own goal),
75', Niang C. ↓, Liberal A. ↑,
76', Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. ↓, Coelho R. ↑,
81', 0 - 4, Pinto A. ⚽,
84', Eduardo W. ↓, Souza E. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+2', Coelho R. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Covilhã has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Belenenses is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Covilhã may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Belenenses is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Covilhã won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.25	Mafra - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Covilhã - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Covilhã - Caldas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTTLW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Belenenses - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.25	Belenenses - Covilhã	3:0
13.12.24	Belenenses - Covilhã	2:2
01.09.24	Covilhã - Belenenses	2:2

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